(New York)

The annual next-year forecast cycle for Wall Street’s investment banks is in and some of the findings are interesting. As usual, banks are fairly bullish. However, that was certainly not automatic this year given the huge tumult in markets in 2020. One particular forecast stood out—Goldman Sachs. The bank’s research team, led by David Kostin, has its official 2021 S&P 500 price target as 4,200, or just about 14% ahead of today. Interestingly, the bank also thinks gold is going to rise strongly, from the mid 1,800s today to 2,300. According to Kostin, “On absolute metrics like price/earnings...the market is very expensive relative to its history, in the 90th percentile or greater … But relative to interest rates, the stock market is somewhat attractively valued. Those are two different stories—absolute valuation versus relative valuation”.

FINSUM: As tough as it is to swallow on a historical basis, we think the interest-rates measured basis for current valuations makes a great deal of sense.

(New York)

Many wealth management firms find themselves challenged by female clients. The industry has long been dominated by male advisors, and many firms have been slow to adapt to the needs of female clients. The increasing asset controlled by women has created more urgency to rectify this issue, and one approach that might aid in understanding how to better serve women is goals-based investing. According to one firm that has been very successful with female clients, “Women have to understand why they are doing stuff”. According to studies, meeting financial goals is more important to women than to men, and women tend to put more thought and work into defining the goals for their finances. Thus, making sure to deeply understand goals and explaining how certain investing/wealth management approaches will meet them is integral in making women feel comfortable.

FINSUM: Goals-based investing has many utilities in wealth management, and this one applies to a critical industry issue.

(Washington)

The House Financial Services Committee sent a very strong message to president-elect Joe Biden this week: dissolve Reg BI. Chaired by Maxine Waters, the committee said that the Trump administration had "taken several actions that have eroded shareholder rights, established regulatory barriers to shareholder engagement, increased issuer involvement in the proxy voting advice process and stripped away fundamental investor protections, including safeguards around private markets, where investors have few protections”, and that Biden should take care of the issue by getting rid of Reg BI, and separately, CRS altogether.

FINSUM: Industry experts seem to agree that the Biden Administration is unlikely to completely unwind Reg BI, if only because getting a new rule through would require Congressional approval. While that could still happen depending on how the Georgia runoffs go, it seems more likely the new SEC team would just employ very strict enforcement of Reg BI.

(New York)

Goals-based investing and planning is a well-known, but not greatly understood topic within asset and wealth management. The idea of goals-based investing is to make the goals for investment clear so as to match them to life needs and keep motivation high for clients. However, many advisors do this incorrectly and resultingly think it is ineffective. The main problem is always that advisors don’t take enough time to truly understand their clients’ goals. Many clients, when posed question about goals, will give half-hearted answers that they think they should say (e.g. a comfortable retirement). It is on advisors to dig deeper and truly understand what they want. For example, a client who is fully engaged might say they want to buy a retirement home on the coast when they are 65 and afford to give their daughter a six-figure wedding.

FINSUM: If the goal that you are trying to align investment to isn’t completely genuine for the client, then it doesn’t truly serve as motivation. That said, true insight into what a client wants can deliver enormous value.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs went on the record with a bold call last week. They told investors that despite all the fears in the market, a big correction WAS NOT coming. Alessio Rizzi and his team at Goldman say that many indicators are showing a bullish outlook, and that big losses don’t seem likely. According to Rizzi, “more moderate risky asset returns are likely from here, rather than an imminent risk of a sizable correction”. One indicator Goldman cited as very bullish was the ratio between puts and calls. Right now the market is deeply favoring calls, with the ratio nearing the limits of its normal distribution.

FINSUM: So bulls look at this and say “aha, I’m right, the market will rise”; and bears say “exactly as expected, this is a contrarian indicator”! In our opinion, on the whole, there is plenty to be optimistic about.