Since May, President Biden has been pushing a social spending bill that would significantly increase the US’ social safety net and do so by raising taxes on the wealthy. The two primary tax changes Biden is planning for individuals focus on inheritance taxes and capital gains taxes. These plans have spooked US advisors and their clients because collectively they could create some very significant increases in taxation. However, Biden’s plans for the whole bill seem to have taken a major hit in the last few days, as the very hot inflation reading on the economy has many politicians considering whether a huge spending bill would only worsen the issue.

FINSUM: We have been following this saga very closely and we believe the inflation numbers are the death knell for this bill. Biden was already facing major opposition on spending and taxes in their own right, and now some of the benefit of the economic firepower is being called into question.

Another post pandemic super bill is flowing through the economy this time with a Biden name tag, and the president claims the $1.2 trillion dollar stimulus will lower inflation. The idea is the new bill will lubricate the American supply chains and have goods flowing easier and thus lowering costs. It's difficult to say if this bill will un-kink the supply chains or just boost demand and prices even more. Americans are already worried about $4.50 gass and surging food prices. Inflation hit a 31 year record this month, and inflation expectations aren’t slowing according to the Michigan survey of consumer expectations. The median projection is 4.6% over the next year, up nearly 2% from a year ago. Additionally the Biden administration is planning on pushing the $1.75 trillion dollar Build Back Better in the upcoming weeks.

FINSUM: A stimulus bill would have to be hyper targeted at supply chains to have the effect Biden is aiming at, and in combination with the BBB these bills will only further the U.S.’s inflation problem.

Throughout 2021 one of the biggest worries for investors, business owners, and policy makers has been the return of inflation…see the full story on our partner’s site

Annuities have been on a hot streak as of late and that continues into the 2021. Data collected from a combination of Morningstar and Beacon Annuity Solutions shows that sales for all annuities are up 17.3% through the first half of 2021 dwarfing previous years growth. And over the previous year up a staggering 27.9%. But the makeup tells the interesting story, total fixed annuities were up 12.1% while fixed annuities were almost level with 0.2% growth. And within variable annuities it was registered index linked annuities that dominated the sector with 11.2% growth and up 107.8% over the previous year’s same period. The book value of fixed annuities grew from 32% from Q1 to Q2 in 2021 totaling $12.7 billion.

FINSUM: This is a huge growth in annuities, and it probably stems from the inflation risk in the bond market, annuities are just the safer alternative for an income stream vs yield-less bonds.

Private equity firms are overwhelmingly turning to private credit as a buyout means over traditional bank financing. In a survey by Dechert law firm 45% of private equity firms have increased their use of private credit in buyouts in the last three years, which was a 10% increase from the previous year. Now private credit only trails real estate and private equity in private capital assets and is expected to grow to $1.46 trillion by 2025. It's a combination of a borrowing flexibility and yield chasing that has investors opening the doors to private credit. Private markets also seem less tumultuous to global volatility with longer contracts that are locked up and untradable. This is a big reason more than 50% of PE firms said its their preferred method to finance buyouts.

FINSUM: Ultra low yields and global instability are the biggest draws to private markets, because we know they are statistically less correlated with super liquid debt markets.