(New York)

A famous contrarian fund manager, Alan Lancz, put out a very interesting quote today. He said that “The next 45 days may just become the most critical period in U.S. financial history”. He argues that the manner in which the US economy is reopened will dictate the direction of the next several years of the recovery. In his view, even the best case scenario is a U-shaped recovery where it will take a long time to get back to where we were. In his words, “The much talked about ‘V’ shaped recovery is no longer in the equation because of the unprecedented combination of negatives with this crisis”.

FINSUM: We can’t help but agree. This lockdown has lasted so long—and will likely continue for a while longer—that we can’t imagine we will be back to February 2020’s economic output level until 2022.

(Washington)

While many readers often accuse us of having one political persuasion or another (we get accused by both sides all the time!), we try to be pretty neutral about politics here at FINSUM. On this particular topic, we want to weigh in very clearly (even though we don’t, have a clear position). Earlier this week, the President said what was easily the most heartfelt, eloquent and “presidential” comment of his presidency, and given this topic, we think it is worth sharing. He said “I have it make the biggest decision of my life, and I only hope to god I get it right”. Well, his view was made more clear today, which is that he is favoring a quick reopening.

FINSUM: In our view, nobody knows the right answer to the question about balancing the risk to life versus the imperative of providing economic security. In many ways it is a catch-22. We think a really well-considered strategy is needed.

Earlier this week, the Small Business Administration released aggregate details about the amount of loans “approved” in each sector and each state for the Paycheck Protection Program. However, the document did very little to help business owners understand where their money is, says COVID Loan Tracker.

“Approved” has become a very vague term as it concerns the SBA. COVID Loan Tracker says it has received hundreds of emails from small business owners who say that they have received notices of “approval” but have then waited several days before receiving money, or still have not received it.

COVID Loan Tracker was started by small business owners Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth to help their fellow small business owners understand when PPP and EIDL advance money starts flowing. The site works by crowdsourcing knowledge on applications and loan disbursements. Our goal is to help the small business community and empower journalists with the data they need to keep the government accountable.

PLEASE HELP SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS BY FILLING OUT THE FORM

While the release of the data by the SBA does help gain insight into which sectors and states will ultimately receive money, the agency has been reticent to release the numbers of actual loan disbursement (i.e. money actually paid out). This figure would be much more illustrative of how the PPP loan program is proceeding.

For instance, the document does not lend any clarity to the percent of applications that have been paid. According to COVID Loan Tracker, that figure stands at just 5%, a far cry from the ~70% the SBA says has been “approved”. “Where is the money”, says one of COVID Loan Tracker’s founders, Duncan MacDonald-Korth.

(New York)

New data emerging today is for the first time showing the scale of the devastation that has occurred to the US economy. Industrial production fell 5.4% in March, the worst fall since 1946. Headline retails sales fell a whopping 8.7%. Both data points were worse than economists predicted.

FINSUM: What is really worrying here is that large parts of the US were not even shutdown until the very end of March. This means April’s numbers are likely to be a complete washout. Judging by indexes, this scared markets.

(San Francisco)

Apple just debuted a new phone model and they appear to have made a very wise decision. The company unveiled its new version of the iPhone SE, its lowest end model of the iPhone, for just $399, the same price as the original SE model in 2016. However, this phone is significantly beefed up, and Apple says its Bionic Chip is the “fastest chip in a smartphone”. The pricing, of course, comes at a time of major economic hardship for most Americans.

FINSUM: This is a wise play both from a revenue generation standpoint and a branding standpoint. It would be hard for most of the US to justify a $1,000+ upgrade right now.