(Washington)

All eyes on the Fed. Not only is the winding down of the Fed’s balance sheet a potentially major issue to Dollar liquidity and emerging markets, but the market has rate worries to deal with. The big question is how low the US jobless rate can go before it sparks big inflation. Currently sitting at 3.8%, the Fed needs to decide how long it can tolerate the hot market before hiking rates quickly. The US jobless rate has only twice been so low. Once in the 1960s, which led to a decade of high inflation, and once in 2000, which was followed by a recession.

FINSUM: There is currently a big disconnect between the rate rises the market is pricing in versus what the Fed is forecasting. The market may lose that gamble very badly.

(Washington)

The long-awaited, and hotly contested US-North Korea summit between President Trump and North Korea leader Kim went very well yesterday. The summit lasted for hours and resulted in a commitment from North Korea to denuclearize in exchange for the US pledging security guarantees for the country. Trump said the two signed a “very important” document. Trump reported that “My meeting with Chairman Kim was honest, direct and productive … We are prepared to start a new history ... and write a new chapter between our nations”.

FINSUM: For the first time we got the feeling that North Korea has played this whole situation very slyly. They built up nuclear capabilities (probably) simply to have a better bargaining position, and it appears to be working.

(Washington)

A lot of financial industry participants have been hoping that the Trump administration might ultimately disassemble much of Dodd-Frank. Bits and pieces have been toned down so far, but the regulation remains mostly intact. Well, it seems like it is going to remain that way. SEC chief Jay Clayton just confirmed that while the SEC may seek to modify Dodd-Frank around the edges, there won’t be major changes. “I don’t think Dodd-Frank is changing a great deal, just to put a pin in it”, said Clayton.

FINSUM: Clearinghouses might see some changes, but otherwise Clayton seems fairly adamant that Dodd-Frank is staying put.

(Washington)

The Trump-era SEC is really starting to make itself felt. Not only has the SEC come out with a lighter touch “best interest” rule, but financial fines have been plummeting. In the six months from October to March, the SEC handed out $102m in fines, 93% lower than the year prior, and the lowest amount in at least 12 years. The total number of cases also fell by a quarter. The largest fine so far under SEC head Jay Clayton was $14m, tiny compared to the $415m fine levied against BAML under former SEC head Mary Jo White.

FINSUM: Financiers had been hoping that we were entering a regulatory-light era under Trump. It really seems to be materializing.

(New York)

Artificial intelligence is one of the hottest concepts in tech, and one of the most intangible from an investing standpoint. Since “AI” seems to be something that most companies are developing internally, the concept remains difficult to invest in directly for most investors. Those wanting to invest in AI can look beyond Google, Facebook, and the rest of the FAANGs, however. According to one analyst, one should look for specific software companies that have “tremendous expertise in their specific industry, understand their customers’ businesses, and provide highly tailored solutions”. These include Aspen Systems, Guidewire Software, and Veeva Systems.

FINSUM: AI doesn’t have many widely available direct investing opportunities, so these seem like some very interesting picks if you want to bet directly on the technology.