(New York)

The muni bond market is in a difficult place for investors. Demand is far outstripping supply, which means prices are high and yields low, leaving investors few opportunities to find value. However, few does not mean none, so here are some places to find good value municipal bonds. Airport muni bonds can be a good choice, as they tend to fair well in recessions and have very defensible funding sources (e.g. state and local governments). Toll-road bonds are another good choice, as they have very strong credit characteristics (only two have defaulted since 1970). Toll roads in San Francisco, New York, Oklahoma, and Maine are particularly good bets as there are few options for drivers to avoid them.

FINSUM: These seem like well-thought out and defensible choices.

(Los Angeles)

Tesla has been in a very rough patch recently, with shares dropping swiftly and deeply. However, where are things headed next? Well, an important “insider” indicator just flashed that you need to know about. Two Tesla directors have been heavily selling stock this year, showing that those close to the company are not bullish. Directors Buss and Gracias have sold nearly $47m of stock in 2019, and total sales by insiders are around $68m, almost 5x the total selling of last year.

FINSUM: We think this is quite a troubling sign and does not give us any conviction about a rebound.

(New York)

More some time now, bonds have been sending worrying signals to investors. The huge plunge in yields has been seen as a warning sign that the economy may be headed south. However, more recently, fixed income is sending more comforting signals. In particular, the recent narrowing of corporate bond spreads. Bond spreads had been rising for some time, but have leveled off recently, showing fixed income investors are not as worried about the economy and corporate performance. The overall spread is still well below where it was in the 2015-2016 growth scare.

FINSUM: The leveling off of spreads is a good sign that some stability is coming back to the market.

(New York)

You might not think it is the right time for this stock, but Goldman Sachs says you should. The bank has just come out very positive on Ford. The automotive company has far outpaced the S&P 500 this year, but is still down 16% over the last 12 months. Goldman says that Wall Street is not appreciating how significant Ford’s recent restructuring is, as they think it can unlock “billions in trapped value” by lowering costs in the trucks division.

FINSUM: Basically, Goldman says Ford is going to see a big and sustained pop in earnings that no one sees coming. It is a nice, simple thesis and we like it.

(New York)

You may normally think of it in terms of stocks, but “buy low, sell high” applies to bonds just as much, and that is a good way to think of the market right now. With yields having fallen so far since last year, one strategist said it was time to accept the “the present the Fed has given us”, and swap out bonds for floating rate securities, which have lagged this rally. The scale of returns in the bond market is impressive. For instance, the iShares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF has risen over 9% since the beginning of the year.

FINSUM: It seems unlikely to us that bond yields are going to drop much further, which means there is little reason to wait for further gains.