(Washington)

This week the House voted to impeach president Trump. But in a little known technicality, he is not formally impeached until the House speaker hands over the impeachment to the Senate to hold its trial. House speaker Pelosi is dragging her feet on doing so in an effort to get the Senate to run the kind of trial the Democrats think is fair. In response, Trump himself is demanding an immediate trial, with Senate leader McConnell mocking the Democrats for their previous urgency on impeachment coupled with their stalling strategy now.

FINSUM: Whether you are on the right or the left, the delay by Pelosi does not look good as it is a contradiction of the previous urgency.

(Washington)

Elizabeth Warren, top Democrat in the running for the presidency, has been looming over the wealth management sector for months. She has staunchly consumer-protectionist leanings, but yesterday she made very apparent how she feels about forthcoming regulation in wealth management. Warren wrote a letter to DOL Chief Scalia warning him about the forthcoming DOL rule. “Given your past statements that the fiduciary rule ‘is a matter that ought to be addressed by the SEC,’ I am concerned that the DOL may simply copy the wholly inadequate standards of conduct framework developed by the [SEC] in its recently-finalized Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI)”, she said, continuing “Americans’ savings should never be willfully compromised by conflicted actors operating under anemic rules — but they are … broker-dealers to give clients advice that is not in their best interest”.

FINSUM: Usually one would argue that politicians don’t know much about the ins and outs of wealth management, but Warren knows much more than usual given her background with the CFP. That makes her a very significant opponent for the industry.

(New York)

Which stocks dominated the 2010s? It is an easy question, not a trick—tech stocks. The FAANGs absolutely ruled in the past decade, but such patterns rarely continue and the best stocks in the next 10 years might be very different. Instead, UBS recommends stocks that focus on sustainable investing, genetic therapies, digital transformation, and alleviating water scarcity. The world and its governments and investors are likely to move towards sustainable tech in the next decade, which should support this nascent space, says UBS. Meanwhile technologies like 5G and gene-based therapeutics will revolutionize the technology and healthcare sectors. The world also has a significant supply and demand issue in water (mismatches between where water is and where it is needed), which will create significant revenue opportunities.

FINSUM: This is quite a progressive view, especially in respect to the water and sustainability forecasts. That said, it does seem like a good thesis.

(New York)

So which stock will lead the way in 2020. Many are of two minds about this question. One the one hand, growth stocks look so pricey that value seems to have a good chance of taking the lead; but on the other, growth has been dominating for so long that it is hard to imagine such stocks not leading. Goldman Sachs say the middle road, or GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks, will be the big winners, as they have characteristics of both groups. “During periods of very strong or accelerating growth, investors embrace the risk of low valuation stocks because even lower quality stocks can successfully generate [earnings] growth in rapid GDP growth environments”, says David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman. Take Google for instance, which trades at 26x earnings, which is only in the 56th percentile for the communications sector, but has strong earnings growth characteristics. Other names to look at include Estee Lauder, MGM Resorts, and Lockheed Martin.

FINSUM: Interesting thesis and we like it in principal. Our issue is that investors just don’t seem to care about price right now.

(New York)

Wall Street analysts area all over the map about where stocks are headed next year. Some firms are bearish (Morgan Stanley), some are neutral, and some are bullish. Put Bank of America in the latter category, as the bank says that stocks are set to surge in the first couple months of 2020. Calling the year “front-loaded”, Bank of America analysts say that the S&P 500 should rise by 5.2% by March 3rd. Michael Hartnett from BAML says that the combination of easing trade worries, diminished Brexit fears, and loose monetary policy should combine to cause a “melt-up” in risk assets.

FINSUM: We like this call. All the fears for the winter seemed to have ebbed, and there will be a few months before election worries really kick in.