Displaying items by tag: junk

Friday, 06 December 2019 07:58

Why High Yield is Poised to Tumble

(New York)

There are some very worrying signals coming out of the high yield sector. In particular, stocks at the riskiest end of the market have been underperforming. Bonds rated CCC, CCC+, and CCC-, which are the three lowest rungs before default, have been underperforming all year and that weakness has now reached an “unprecedented size”. What is worrying is that very lowly rated bonds are usually the most influenced by economic perceptions, and it is unusual that with junk rallying so much this year that this cohort has not taken part.


FINSUM: So there are two options for what this could mean. Either it means investors are just being cautious, or much more negatively, that credit conditions are tightening, which would be a sign of a pending economic downturn.

Published in Bonds: High Yield
Wednesday, 13 November 2019 08:30

The Bond Market is Flashing Warning Signs

(New York)

One corner of the bond market, or rather credit market, is having a tough time and it may be a negative sign for the rest of fixed income. CLOs, or collateralized loan obligations, which have been a star for several years, recent tumbled. In aggregate, CLOs dropped 5% in October, and those close to the market see more volatility to come. According to Citigroup “We think there’s more volatility coming … We recommend investors reduce risk and stay with cleaner portfolios and better managers”. CLOs are a key funder of the leveraged loan market, and weak demand there can flow through to boost borrowing costs to all corporates.


FINSUM: This is akin to a warning coming out of the high yield market, as what it reflects is worries about how leveraged companies might handle a downturn.

Published in Bonds: High Yield
Tuesday, 05 November 2019 13:21

BBB Bonds are Surging

(New York)

For many months there has been a great deal of fear about the threat of BBB bonds falling into the “junk” category. The whole fear is based on the idea that as the economy slows, this huge group of companies would get downgraded and there would be forced divestiture, sending bond prices strongly lower. However, the opposite has happened. Over the last few months, BBB bonds done nothing but strengthen. In fact, the spread between BBBs and Treasuries just hit a 52-week low, showing investors renewed faith in what is the largest segment of corporate bonds.


FINSUM: Unsurprisingly, the price growth has led to a bunch of new issuance. It is important to remember that though prices have risen, the risk of a recession and downgrades is still very much there.

Published in Bonds: IG
Tuesday, 22 October 2019 09:20

A Big Junk Bond Selloff is Beginning

(New York)

There is serious trouble brewing in the riskiest corners of the debt market. The lowest rated group of corporate bonds have seen their yields rise for months as a host of factors are causing losses. Whether it be the switch to ecommerce, poor energy prices and renewables, or prescription drug regulations, companies across multiple sectors have been getting hammered. The problem is that the issues hurting these CCC rated companies are not just isolated to them, the move in sentiment and selling is spreading to the broader high yield and speculative loan market. More companies are being downgraded too, and default rates are picking up.


FINSUM: Rather than a panic, this is a broad-based and fundamental move away from risky debt. It may not lead to huge losses—yet—but expect spreads to keep rising.

Published in Bonds: High Yield
Thursday, 22 August 2019 12:05

Trouble Brewing in Junk Bonds

(New York)

It is finally happening—riskier junk bonds are seeing outflows as investors shy away from the lowest rated credits. Junk bonds have been coated in Teflon for the most part, with the riskiest bonds rallying for several months. But recently, alongside recession fears, investors have been more anxious about how such credits might fare in a downturn. Accordingly, spreads between CCC-rated bonds and BB-rated bonds have jumped to 8%, the highest level since 2016. 


FINSUM: This makes a lot of sense, and is one of the more logical moves in the high yield market we have seen in some time.

 

Published in Bonds: High Yield
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