Displaying items by tag: fed

Wednesday, 22 December 2021 19:02

Hedge Funds Reliant on Rate Hikes

Hedge funds opened the floodgates and entered a firesale on treasuries in response to Powells pivot on inflation. JPMorgan said the selling demonstrates leveraged investors pivoting out of Treasuries. Hedge funds are continually shorting across the futures market, and are now hitting an annual low in U.S. 10-year treasuries futures. The only problem is the tapering hasn’t begun just yet and rate hikes are only in theory. This means hedge funds drastically need the Fed to follow through on a hawkish swing if they don’t want to get hung out to dry.


FINSUM: It would be extremely unlikely the Fed pivots on its tapering. The only way that's possible is if inflation was significantly below target the next one or two quarters.

Published in Alternatives

Jerome Powell and the Fed turned a 180 this week with the future of its asset tapering and interest rate hikes. The Fed sees Covid and omicron as yesterday's demons and have set their sights on inflation. With that the Fed is gearing up for potentially three rate hikes in 2022 and is moving away from the transitory inflation story. This could be bad for bond investors as the Fed’s tune could change if omicron picks up or inflation shifts gears, meaning there is a lot of uncertainty about future rates. Nonetheless, higher rates could undercut existing long term bonds so those still invested in bonds should consider switching their investments to shorter duration Fixed Income ETFs or less sensitive corporate bonds. Lower duration bond ETFs will be more stable when there is interest rate uncertainty (unlike in standard times).


FINSUM: The Fed could just as quickly hop off the inflation fighting hawk train if they get a series of lower PCE reports, which means investors need to be ready for various scenarios.

Published in Bonds: Treasuries
Wednesday, 01 December 2021 09:15

Labor shortages and equity market implications

High levels of unemployment continue to plague the labor market despite available jobs...See More

Published in Eq: Total Market
Thursday, 25 November 2021 06:30

Biden May Have Just Saved the Market

President Biden renominated Jerome Powell as Fed Chair on Monday this week in perhaps the purest bi-partisan reaction from the President since he entered office. The news was celebrated on wall street as both the bond and equity markets felt the reprieve. Additionally, Republicans on the senate banking committee rejoiced at the pick given Powell’s historical ties to the republican party. Powell was assumed to be in a close contest for the Fed position with Lael Brainard, but ultimately continuity was valued moving into the next phase of the post-covid recession. Still Powell’s road is difficult moving forward given sluggish employment and growth, and rising inflationary pressures.


FINSUM: This was a wise decision by Biden politically, and markets trust Powell to be dovish even as a republican which is the best of both worlds for the economy.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Monday, 11 October 2021 20:58

The Fed Prepares for Climate Change

(Washington)

Fed Governor Lael Brainard issued comments on Thursday regarding the Fed’s position on climate change. Brainard said the Fed is developing a series of scenario tools to model the risk of climate change to the financial system. The models will see how our financial system holds up to hypothetical climate change hazards such as floods, droughts, and fires. This will bring the Fed closer to the rest of the leading central banks around the world, such as the ECB and Bank of England, who already are doing this at a minimum. Many progressive Democrats have been critical of the Powell Fed for their lack of green policy and financial regulation and this is a correction step that may allow Powell to get renominated in 2022.


FINSUM: These action steps are important by the Fed, but they will not be accompanied by any regulatory steps, meaning banks won’t be punished for over-exposure to climate risks. Thus, the risk to asset prices seems lower.

Published in Bonds: Total Market
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