Displaying items by tag: volatility

It’s been, um, shaky times, for Silicon Valley Bank. Perhaps you’ve heard.

Well, Wall Street certainly has. On the heels of the air going out of the balloon of the bank, U.S. Treasury markets have been enduring volatility to the max, reported reuters.com.

The ICE Boa MOVE Index (.MOVE) – a measure of anticipated treasuries volatility – has exploded beyond its high in the face of COVID. Today? It’s around levels experienced, during -- you  probably had a hunch -- the financial crisis.

Traders were compelled to reverse their bets on steepling rates in light of expectations the Fed would pause or ease up on increases in interest rates given the lighting fast fall of the bank, coupled with  Signature Bank’s.

Earlier in the year, Deloitte issued a banking and capital markets outlook in which, among other things, it laid out the global economy’s remaining fragility entering the year, according to deloitte.com. Uncertainties? You betcha, such as those stemming from a cocktails of factors, including the invasion of Ukraine, a topsy turvy supply chain, barreling inflation and a global tightening of monetary policy.

Banks, over the long run, the outlook continued, should look past product, industry or business model boundaries and seek new sources of value.

According to a report by Nationwide, women investors are getting more uneasy about their retirement prospects as market volatility continues and inflation remains a concern. Nationwide’s eighth annual “Advisor Authority” study, which is sponsored by its Nationwide Retirement Institute, found that more than 40% of women believe the U.S. is in a financial crisis, with another 24% believing that one is looming. Women are also feeling discouraged about retirement preparedness as the report found that nearly nine in 10 women (87%) said that no matter what they do to manage their finances, they still feel blindsided by events outside their control. That marks a double-digit percentage point increase over last year as only 76% voiced that sentiment in 2022. Nationwide also noted that more than half of non-retired women investors (54%) believe that inflation poses the most immediate challenge to their retirement. Thirty-eight percent also cited economic recession as a disruptor, while 21% pointed to market volatility. The “Advisor Authority” research was conducted online within the U.S. by the Harris Poll on behalf of Nationwide in January. The survey included 511 advisors and financial professionals and 789 investors aged 18 or over with investable assets of more than $10,000.

Finsum:According to Nationwide’s eighth annual “Advisor Authority” study, women investors are more uneasy about their retirement portfolios as market volatility, inflation, and a potential economic recession remain a concern.

According to Man Group boss Luke Ellis, investors should get used to volatility in the markets. Last Tuesday, Ellis predicted inflation will remain high because of strong wage growth in much more volatile markets. He stated, “It will take a lot of years before inflation is put to bed again. We’re in a different paradigm.” He added, “The base effects are running out and we still have very significant wage inflation. It’s not squeezing services [sector] wage inflation, and services is such a big part of the economy. You can’t get consistently to [a] 2 percent [inflation target] when you have 6 to 7 percent wage inflation.” Ellis also said that he did not believe stocks had yet bottomed out. He compared the current environment to the 1970s when the real return from equities after inflation was about zero. His comments come as U.S. stocks fell in February with investors growing concerned that the strength of the economy might require higher interest rates, and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation rose more than expected in January. In addition, both France and Spain also reported a rise in inflation, beating forecasts.

Finsum:Man Group boss Luke Ellis predicts inflation will remain high due to strong wage growth in volatile markets.

Volatility? For at least the immediate future, when it comes to the market, it seems to about the only stable thing going.

Volatility’s on pace to remain on the high side – with the volatility index averaging about 25, according to jpmorgan.com. As the Fed over squeezes into weaker fundamentals, the S&P’s expected to again test last year’s lows.

“In the first half of 2023, we expect the S&P 500 to re-test the lows of 2022 as the Fed overtightens into weaker fundamentals. This sell-off combined with disinflation, rising unemployment and declining corporate sentiment should be enough for the Fed to start signaling a pivot, subsequently driving an asset recovery and pushing the S&P 500 to 4,200 by year-end 2023,” said Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, global head of Equity Macro Research at J.P. Morgan.

“We all know it’s been a tough year for investors. We’ve been through monetary tightening and persistent inflation across global economies,” said Ryan Murray, CFP, with Vanguard. “We’ve seen an unprecedented period of volatility in the bond market, where such fluctuations are highly unusual.”

Give the inherently unpredictability of markets, in the face of extreme volatility, shucking aside your long term plan will certainly cross the minds of investors, he noted. “But it’s important not to let emotions get the better of you or push you to make a reactive decision that could put your hard-earned savings at risk.

Investors are bracing for more market volatility as traders buy up hedges at the fastest clip since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Cboe data, call options betting that the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) will rise are the highest on an average day in February than at any time since March 2020. After not much movement for months, the VIX, which is also known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose above 23 last week, its highest level since the first few trading days of the year. Readings below 20 usually signify complacency, while readings above 30 signal investors are looking for protection. The increased demand is due to two reasons. First, when stocks rebounded at the start of the year, investors jumped back into the market, restoring a need to hedge their portfolios. In addition, recent economic data increased the likelihood that the Fed will be forced to continue raising interest rates to slow inflation, stalling the stock rally. The S&P 500 saw three consecutive weeks of declines, which was capped by a hotter-than-expected reading on the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation. The CME Group Volatility Index, which tracks volatility in the Treasury market, also recently reached its highest levels in more than a month.

Finsum:Investors are bracing for more volatility in the market as call options betting that the VIX will rise are at their highest mark since the start of the COVID pandemic.