Displaying items by tag: s&p

Fretting over salting away enough cash for retirement against the backdrop of the helter skelter ride, courtesy of the stock market?

Yeah, it’s a thing.

In the dawning days of September, the S&P 500 index of stocks saw almost 24% fly out the window, according to Sandy Wiggins, of ACG Wealth Management in Midlothian, appearing on wtvr.com. Bonds, what’s more, typically, regarded as a safer option than stocks, also hit the skids. Through that month, Bloomberg US Aggregate – the main bond index – kissed away 14.6%.

“It’s a scary time for investors, especially those who have retired or are planning to in the next few years,” Wiggins said, reported wtlocal.com. “However, the key to successful long-term investing is to keep fear from making decisions in such difficult times. Investor psychology is such that greed in good times and fear in bad lead to overreaction and bad decisions.

“First, realize that timing the market is a losing strategy,” Wiggins continued. “By timing the market, we mean moving from stocks to cash or something else conservative with the expectation of going back when things feel better. The best demonstration of the folly of market timing is to examine the impact on returns by staying invested and missing the best return days.”

In a recent Business Insider article, Charles Schwab is warning that stocks could see more volatility through the rest of this year, as we head into what the firm considers a weak earnings season. The company believes that more companies could miss earnings estimates in the following quarter, using FedEx as an example. The transportation firm slashed its earnings guidance last week in what is expected to be a sign of things to come for the rest of the S&P 500. In a note on Monday, analysts stated, "We believe the weakness in expected earnings growth is early in its trip to an ultimate negative (year-over-year decline) destination." Analysts also noted that the rate at which S&P 500 companies beat earnings expectations fell to 5% last quarter. This compares to over 20% in the middle of 2021. The company noted that the trend could be even lower in the third quarter as earnings reports come in. Excluding the energy sector, Schwab estimates that earnings growth in the S&P 500 will shrink by 2% over the third quarter, down over 11% from June.

Finsum:Analysts atCharles Schwab are warning of more stock volatility as we head into a weak earnings season.

In the aftermath of what had been a sweet buzz of a ride, stocks are embroiled in another unwelcome turn, according to ally.com. Last week, of course, the S&P 500, bless it, threw in the towel of what had been a four-week run. This week? You go it; the setback continues.  

So, what’s up with that? Well, let’s count the uncertainties. Corporate earnings season’s winding down. Summer? Vaulting into the rear view mirror. And the news cycle will slow to a trickle. It all spells a vacuum in solid direction which, right again, puts air under the likelihood of volatility, the site continued.

In fact, taking, well, stock, of the interest rate trend lines over this  summer, they’re more rocky than stable, according to money.usnews.com. The swings in the average 30 year fixed rates have been madcap, percolating and descending by as much as a quarter point per seek following a mid June peak to 5.81%.

The 30-year fixed rate went back up to well over 5% this week -- a reminder that recent volatility remains persistent, said Sam Khater, vice president, chief economist and head of Freddie Mac’s Economic and Housing Research division. “Although rates continue to fluctuate, recent data suggest that the housing market is stabilizing as it transitions from the surge of activity during the pandemic to a more balanced market.” 

Equities have rallied, inflation is falling in the month of July, and global gas prices seem to be easing; investors can shake off the volatility concerns, right? Not just yet. Volatility experts Paul Britton founder of Capstone Investment Advisors told the FT that we aren’t through the weeds just yet as the corporate debt crisis looms at the end of 2022. Britton says there is a significant repricing as companies might struggle to pay off high corporate debt with rising interest rates. Capstone looks to profit on increasing volatility as they are a considerable hedge fund, but the VIX is still falling below its long-run moving average for the first time in four months. Fed experts like Mary Daly, president of the SF Fed branch, say the inflation battle hasn’t been won yet, signaling more rate hikes may be needed to bury inflation.

Finsum: Failing to consider the fact that inflation favors borrowers, real borrowing costs on corporate debt have decreased considerably.

There have been huge sectoral pains for tech, bio-tech, emerging market, and growth stocks in the last couple of weeks, but JPMorgan says it's time to turn bullish on these beta positions. Analyst Kolanovic said that these equity sectors are about to benefit because many of the geopolitical risk and macro pressures are about to ease. JPMorgan’s analyst believes that there will be little inflation and the US will avoid a recession. Biotech has been beat down since last August when the Nasdaq Biotech Index peaked; it is now at 75% of its previous high.

Finsum: The Fed projections could be bad for tech stocks as higher interest rates decrease the relative value of techs profits.