U.S. farmers are facing a sharp drop in soybean and pork exports to China just as planting season ramps up, signaling serious trouble ahead. With China previously accounting for a major share of demand, especially for these two products, the sudden decline in sales — some dropping more than 70% — is hitting a fragile agricultural sector hard. 

The current trade dispute, now broader and more severe than the 2018 tariff standoff, comes with no clear support for producers and is compounded by related conflicts with other trade partners like Canada. This creates a supply chain crunch, not just at the point of export but also in key input materials like fertilizer, making the hit to farmers multifaceted. 

Domestic consumption isn’t likely to absorb the surplus either, especially as U.S. demand for pork remains soft and efforts like increasing biodiesel requirements are not enough to offset lost international sales. 

For many growers, the loss of access to a market of over a billion consumers could be a lasting blow with no easy substitute.