In a striking twist, the Biden administration’s final week coincided with the best stock market performance since Trump’s re-election, fueled by a bond market rally following unexpectedly mild inflation data. The S&P 500 surged nearly 3%, just shy of the 6000 mark, while the Dow posted its strongest week in months, aided by a sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields. 

Despite this upbeat sendoff, Biden’s term closes with a mixed economic legacy: robust job creation and stock market gains were offset by a historic drop in real disposable income and surging national debt. The inflation respite behind the rally may not indicate lasting relief, as core inflation remains stubbornly stalled near 3.3%. 

Rising crude oil and gasoline prices threaten to reignite inflationary pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s path toward rate cuts. As the market shifts focus to Trump’s fiscal policy, investors brace for more stimulative measures that could push long-term Treasury yields past 5%, setting the stage for new challenges in both equity and bond markets.

Finsum: The most recent Fed minutes suggest a strong concern over taming inflation in the new administration so keep those inflation strategies handy.