Displaying items by tag: fed

Wednesday, 12 October 2022 03:13

Small Caps Are De-Risked According to RBC Strategist

Based on research released Monday, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, believes that small-cap stocks have already priced in a recession and are currently de-risked. Calvasina noted that small-cap performance has been stable since January and is in a narrow trading range in comparison to large-caps. She stated, “While this doesn’t necessarily tell us that a bottom in the broader U.S. equity market is imminent, it does tell us that the equity market is behaving rationally. It has been our view for quite some time that small-caps, which underperformed large-cap dramatically in 2021, have already been de-risked and are baking in a recession.” She also pointed out the sectors that tend to perform best in the period leading up to the final rate increase in a rate-hike cycle. These include defensive sectors such as consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, and utilities. Calvasina wrote the sectors “tended to perform the best within the major index in the six-, three- and one-month periods before the final hikes in the past four Fed tightening cycles.”


Finsum: In a recent research note, Head RBC equity strategist Lori Calvasina believes that stable returns of small-cap stocks are due to recessionary factors already priced in.

Published in Eq: Small Caps

Last week, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said that volatility in the markets can create additional restrictiveness in financial conditions. Last week, global markets saw increased volatility triggered by turbulence in the UK markets. Investors in the UK were spooked by the government’s program of unfunded tax cuts, which sent the pound tumbling and the cost of government debt spiking. In fact, volatility bets last week were at their highest levels since March 2020. Evans said that “The U.S. economy and inflation are going to be largely dictated by the stance of monetary policy and everything else that is going on supply shocks, the labor issues we're dealing with. It is a case that financial market volatility can add to additional financial restrictiveness. So, anything around the world in terms of policy or developments like Russia's invasion of Ukraine can add to additional restrictiveness." Still, he did not indicate that financial conditions would change the Fed’s current course.


Finsum: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated last week that market volatility can create additional restrictiveness in financial conditions, but gave no indication the Fed would change course.

Published in Wealth Management
Saturday, 24 September 2022 07:32

Rate Hikes Have Made Short-Term ETFs More Attractive

While rate hikes appear to be hurting stock and bond prices this year, the rise in yields has made short-term bond ETFs more attractive to yield-seeking investors. As the Fed continues to lift its benchmark federal funds rate to target inflation, bond rates have followed suit. This has been especially true for short-term bonds. In fact, short-term rates are even yielding more than longer-term rates in some cases. For example, the two-year Treasury note had a recent yield of 4%, which was higher than the 10-year Treasury note, with a yield of 3.58%. Plus, investors in short-term bonds are taking on less interest rate risk while getting paid more in interest. If rates continue to rise, bonds with shorter maturities are expected to fall less in price than longer-term bonds. That makes short-term bond ETFs an attractive option for income investors. For instance, the iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV), which holds Treasuries with maturities of less than a year, has a 30-Day SEC yield of 2.69%, while its price performance on the year is essentially flat.


Finsum:The Fed’s current interest rate policy has resulted in higher yields and less risk for short-term bond ETFs.

Published in Bonds: Treasuries
Friday, 02 September 2022 13:31

Is the 60/40 Model Portfolio Dead?

One of the most popular allocations for model portfolios in recent history has been the 60/40 model. A classic allocation with 60% invested in stocks and 40% invested in bonds. Until recently, this model has generated stable returns for investors. However, this year’s brutal returns for both the equity and fixed income markets have investors wondering if the traditional 60/40 model provides adequate protection. In most previous equity downturns, investors have been able to count on bond instruments to hedge negative equity performance due to an inverse relationship between stock returns and bond yields. But this year, investors have been faced with both a down stock market and a hawkish Fed, leading to losses in both asset classes. This has made the 60/40 model seem outdated as of late. While the 60/40 model may not be dead yet, investors may want to consider model portfolios with additional asset classes in the current market environment.


Finsum:With a down stock market and a hawkish Fed, investors may want to reconsider the 60/40 model portfolio.

Published in Wealth Management

Meantime, investors so far continue to quake over performance of fixed income assets.

The Fed’s expected to continue fueling interest rates not on through the second half of the year, but into next year as well, according to wellsfargo.com. Consequently, the degree of the yield curve inversion may top what had been the two cycles before.

Now, up to now for the year, a regular theme’s emerged: the trepidations among investors evolving around the performance of fixed income assets. Some of the top questions swirling in the noggins of fixed income investors that Wells identified: 

  1. What is happening to bonds so far in 2022?
  2. Why continue to invest in bonds?
  3. Why is the Fed garnering so much attention this year?
  4. What should investors expect from the remaining three Fed meetings of this year?
  5. What does Fed quantitative tightening mean?

 

While some market activities are difficult project, one thing that can be pinpointed are long trends in fixed income investing, according to fi-desk.com. Why? Because we can see them and, among all fixed income managers, increasing rife with significance. 

Six trends they’re picking up on in the industry include Direct Indexing or Custom Indexing; Increased use of home office model portfolios; tax-loss harvesting in SMAs; truly optimizing rather than sequentially allocating; insisting on system interoperability; aggregating various data sources; and a shift in the Build vs. Buy debate.

--And these developments should be embraced, according to the site. “We believe these six trends are changing fixed income portfolio management for the better.”

Published in Eq: Total Market
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