Displaying items by tag: bull market

(New York)

Everyone is feeling it, but no one is sure when it might actually come. The big question is when will this bull market end and finally reverse into the bear market everyone fears. While a solid case could be made that it has already happened, Barron’s says it will be in 2020. The logic is that in 2020 the US will be facing genuinely higher rates, and the short-term benefits from tax cuts will have faded from earnings and the economy.

FINSUM: There is a serious argument to be made that the market may have already peaked, but the idea of a 2020 downturn sounds quite compelling too.

(New York)

A lot of investors are worried about the stock market. The market has been essentially flat this year, but given fears over a looming trade war, a potential recession, and higher rates, there is much concern about the potential for falling prices. All that said, here is a factor that may boost markets, but doesn’t seem to be fully priced-in by the market: growing buybacks. Goldman Sachs forecasts that companies in the S&P 500 will buyback a record $650 bn worth of stocks this year, far outpacing the record set in 2007. This should lead to a buyback yield of about 3% for investors, which combined with the dividend yield should net investors about 5%.

FINSUM: A record setting year for buybacks would be a big boost for markets that are lacking a growth story at the moment.

(New York)

Bloomberg has just made a bold call—they say the bull market ended yesterday. While stocks dropped sharply, 1.7% for the Dow, which basically eliminates all the progress they had made over the last couple of weeks, it is hard to say that it means the end of the bull market. The reason Bloomberg argues so is that the market has been stuck in a rut for three months, and yesterday, investors digested a dark survey which showed that Americans, on average, expect stocks to be lower 12 months from now, a sharp turnaround in sentiment. One portfolio manager from Stifel Nicolaus summarizes where the market is now, ”Investors have this understanding that equity markets are at lofty levels and we are in a low-return environment, so as the risk-free rate moves higher, even in a gradual manner, that becomes more of a competitive asset class”.

FINSUM: We are not particularly bearish, but do concede that if rates keep moving higher it is going to be hard for equities to do the same.

(New York)

While the market has not been doing so well this year and there are many warning signs, there are some positives too. One great sign for markets is that earnings are very strong. First quarter earnings season looks to be a great one, but what will that do for the markets? This year is supposed to be the best for earnings growth since 2010, but that is exactly the problem—great earnings this year have been forecasted for a while because of the strong economy and tax cuts. That means all the risk appears to be to the downside rather than the upside.

FINSUM: We think this round of earnings have little margin for error as everyone is expecting them to be great.

(New York)

In a refreshing article given the relative doom and gloom over the last month, Barron’s has published a piece arguing that it is the bears, not the bulls, that need to be afraid of the equity market right now. The view is based on technical analysis. Many might be interested to learn that rather than the technical indicators showing a bull market at or near its peak, signs are suggesting a move upward may be in store. The piece is also quick to point out that despite the shallow correction a month ago, the bull trend for the market has continued unabated.

FINSUM: We don’t put a great deal of stock in technical analysis and only view it as useful as a companion to fundamental analysis. Nonetheless, it is good to stay abreast of this information.