Displaying items by tag: ETFs

First Trust Advisors is launching its 16th taxable fixed income ETF with the First Trust Core Investment Grade ETF (FTCB). The fund has an expense ratio of 0.55% and will look for the maximum possible long-term return by investing all of its funds in investment-grade securities, comprising Treasuries, TIPS, mortgage-backed securities, asset-backed securities, US corporate debt, non-US fixed income securities, municipal bonds, and CMOs. 

The fund’s portfolio managers are Jim Snyder, Jeremiah Charles, Todd Larson, Owen Aronson, Nathan Simons, and Scott Skowronski. Its core philosophy is to analyze fundamentals to identify opportunities and risks while seeking alpha through sector allocation and duration management. Decisions are made through a defined and repeatable process which includes scenario analysis and stress testing. 

They see upside for FTCB given that yields and credit spreads are at attractive levels. First Trust also believes FTCB will outperform in an economic downturn due to lower credit risk. It also believes the fund is well suited for the current market environment where risk management has been crucial, and active strategies have outperformed. According to First Trust ETF strategist Ryan Issakainen, the fund should “produce better risk-adjusted returns than passive benchmarks.”

Finsum: First Trust is launching a new active fixed income ETF, the First Trust Core Investment Grade ETF which looks to outperform passive benchmarks, maximize long-term returns, and minimize credit risk. 

With yields on the 10-year Treasury briefly above 5%, many investors are considering whether this is the time to lock in long-term Treasury ETF exposure. Entering 2023, this was the consensus trade as many expected a slowing economy would erode inflationary pressures and compel the Fed to start cutting rates. Instead, long-duration Treasuries have seen another year of losses as the economy and inflation remained more durable than expected, and the Fed has continued to hike rates.

YTD, the iShares Treasury Bond 20+ Yr ETF (TLT) is down 13%, while the short-duration focused iShares Treasury Bond 0-1 Yr ETF (SGOV) is slightly up on the year. However, the case for long-duration Treasuries is even stronger than at the start of the year, and investors should consider taking advantage of the weakness. 

The Federal Reserve has been increasingly dovish in the face of soft economic data and has already signaled that it will hold off on hikes at its next meeting. There is no longer inversion between the 2Y and 10Y which has generally been a reliable indicator of a recession. Weakness in regional banks and a spike in auto loan delinquencies also are indicative of the economy weakening which would also lead to more dovish policy from the Fed and relief for long-duration Treasury ETFs.

Finsum: Fixed income inflows have been strong all year despite considerable volatility and uncertainty about the economy and Fed.Long-duration Treasuries have floundered so far this year, but here are some reasons why investors should consider buying the dip.

Inflows into fixed income ETFs have continued despite major losses in bonds over the last couple of months. Further, there is no clear indication when the tide will turn given expectations of high supply in the coming months and ambiguity about the economy, inflation, and Fed. 

The most liquid and popular bond ETF, the iShares 20+ Treasury ETF (TLT) has had $17.9 billion inflows so far this year. Assets under management have swelled to $41 billion as well. The biggest driver of flows is due to institutions, pension funds, and family offices that have a mandate regarding fixed income exposure.

Another factor driving demand is that yields are at their highest level in 16 years due to the Fed’s rate hikes. A longer-term trend that supports fixed income flows is that many investors and wealth managers are increasingly favoring ETFs over mutual funds due to lower costs and better liquidity. 

ETFs could also be better suited for volatile environments given that they can be used to harvest tax losses. Additionally intraday liquidity means that exposures can be shifted more easily to achieve precise targeting. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs continue to experience healthy flows despite significant volatility.

2023 has been a volatile year for bonds due to a better than expected economy and hawkish Federal Reserve. Yet, inflows into bond funds are up 38% compared to this time last year at $235 billion according to Blackrock.

The firm sees fixed income demand driven by high yields and the desire to reduce portfolio volatility. Currently, the 10 year Treasury is yielding 4.6% which is 90 basis points higher than at the start of the year. In contrast, the 10 year was yielding around 1% in October 2021.

Currently, the central bank is in a ‘wait and see’ mode regarding further hikes and the duration of the current cycle. Wall Street analysts anticipate that flows should further pick up once it’s clear that the tightening cycle is over as they look to lock in yields at these levels. 

In terms of fixed income ETFs, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) has been the biggest beneficiary with $17 billion of net inflows YTD despite a 13% drop. However, there is less enthusiasm for riskier fixed income due to concerns that a recession could lead to a spike in defaults as inflows into lower-rated bond funds have lagged. 

Finsum: Fixed income inflows have been strong all year despite considerable volatility and uncertainty about the economy and Fed.

In recent weeks, there has been a major outflow out of fixed income ETFs, following the breakout in long-term yields to their highest levels since 2007. According to Bill Gross, the co-founder and former CIO of PIMCO, retail ETF investors are reducing their holdings and contributing to volatility. 

He commented in a CNBC interview that “Over the last few days, large bond ETFs that number in the $100bn range, are experiencing higher volume, which indicates small investor vigilantes are selling. They have been spooked over the last week or so by declines of 3%, 4% and 5% in their bond ETFs.”

In terms of the bigger picture, he attributes the weakness in fixed income due to the federal government’s $2 trillion deficit and the large amounts of incoming supply necessary to finance it. Another contributing factor is the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program which is also adding to supply. Ultimately, he sees yields on 10-year Treasuries reaching as high as 5%.  

He believes the Fed is done hiking this cycle. However, he doesn’t see much upside for long-duration fixed income even if the Fed starts cutting rates due to sticky inflation, nearly 30% of Treasury supply maturing in the next couple of years, and structurally high deficits. 

Finsum: Bill Gross shared some thoughts on the bond market and how recent fixed income ETF outflows are contributing to volatility.