Displaying items by tag: China

(Washington)

The market has been worried about trade for almost half a year now, ever since the rhetoric surrounding it began heating up in June. It has been a major factor in several volatility events in stocks, including in October’s big selloffs. However, a meeting this weekend has the potential to put those worries to rest. Alongside the G20 summit this weekend, Trump and Xi will meet for dinner to discuss the trade tensions between their countries.

FINSUM: Trump and Xi seem like two men that get along well personally, but have an immense amount of competing interests that they need to represent. That said, we have faith that good personal relationships can help bridge such differences. (e.g. see the Cold War)

(San Francisco)

In what comes as an almost apocalyptic announcement for Apple investors, President Trump indicated yesterday that he may impose a tariff directly on iPhones. When asked about whether he would do so, Trump said “Maybe. Maybe. Depends on what the rate is … I mean, I can make it 10%, and people could stand that very easily”. One analyst summarized the development this way, saying “The Street will not be taking this news lightly as with the litany of bad news Apple (and its investors) have seen over the last month … this tariff threat on iPhones out of left field from Trump and Beltway will surely add to this white-knuckle period for Apple”.

FINSUM: We don’t think this will happen. If Trump tried to raise iPhone prices 10% he would likely have a popular revolt (from both sides of the aisle) on his hands. He certainly doesn’t want that.

(New York)

Bloomberg is arguing that the world may be on the verge of a big synchronized recession. In the words of the publication, there is “risk of synchronized slowdown in global growth as Europe wobbles, China sputters and stock markets around the world keep crumbling”. China is finally feeling real heat from the tariffs of the trade war and European growth is slumping. That begs the question of how long the US can remain the fast-growing outlier.

FINSUM: Growth is still good in the US but it does seem to be past peak. Just not as far past peak as in the rest of the world.

(Beijing)

New data out of China suggests all is not well. A gauge of Chinese factory output fell to its lowest level in two years. The news arrives at the same time as the country is in a bear market. The data is particularly important because it shows the China’s economy is under pressure from US tariffs even if the direct effect has not showed up in trade data yet. One Chinese economist for ANZ Bank says “The economic conditions facing China’s private sector is much worse than what the headline figure suggests … Besides an expected reserve requirement ratio cut next January, we expect future supportive policy actions to be measured. The government’s priority is to avoid a financial blow-up”.

FINSUM: We think China is going to once again undertake stimulus measures to support the economy, but this time they will be facing a less accommodative trade environment.

(Shanghai)

If you or your clients own any Chinese focused ETFs, you will have noticed a glaring fact—they have hugely variant returns even when the underlying holdings don’t seem that obviously different. China is a study in how different index weightings and configurations can impact returns. For instance, Chinese stocks as a whole have fallen 21% this year, however the 40 or so Chinese focused ETFs in the US market have ranged from a 5% positive to negative 40% return. Even seemingly broad ETFs, like the iShares Large-Cap ETF, have very varying results, as despite the 21% fall, that ETF only dropped 13%. This is because it has a 50% weighting towards financial stocks, which were largely unscathed.

FINSUM: The key point here is to know what you are buying. Each of the indexes being tracked are quite unique, even if you think you are just buying a broad “China ETF”.