The trade war has really taken a toll on Treasury yields. The tensions between the US and China have made investors bearish about the economy, sending Treasury prices sharply higher, and steepening the inversion. Treasury yields just hit their lowest point since 2017, with ten-year yields falling as low as 2.27%, light years from where they were in the fourth quarter. Even the 30-year is only at 2.7%.
FINSUM: Yields are going to move in step with the trade war. We think the general trend will be downward given the market anxiety and the fact that the Fed is likely to be more dovish.