Eq: Large Cap

(New York)

The markets had a wild day yesterday. Big loss at open, almost back to even, then a really steep fall, and finally, a little rally to close. Bloomberg says that the trading activity has all the telltale signs of algorithms wreaking havoc. For 15 minutes just after 3 pm, the volume of sell orders was so quick and so voluminous that nothing alive could have possibly executed them. The market tanked, plunging to a 1,597-point loss. Interestingly, the involvement of algorithms might help to assuage some fears, as brokers are using that dimension as a way to calm human investors that this was not an all out emotional panic, but rather technology gone wild.


FINSUM: So we know they are deeply ingrained and certainly going nowhere, but why, in principle, are non-human agents allowed to transact in markets? Market-making firms would say they add liquidity, but they certainly exacerbate, or even cause panic too.

(New York)

We appear to be in the middle of a long-absent bout of volatility for both stocks and bonds. After a year of almost no volatility, all the major US indices fell strongly last week. The market is also off to a rocky start today. Now, Barron’s is arguing that this could be the beginning of an ugly ride. The reason why is that the recent trend of stocks and bonds being negatively correlated is ending. While for many years bond prices would rise when stocks fell, and vice versa, the opposite is happening now. Because the market fears rate hikes, bonds and stocks are falling in unison, with nothing to give the market comfort. For that reason, the “bond cushion” that has protected markets since the Crisis, appears to be gone.


FINSUM: The whole paradigm of markets is changing right now. Stock investors cannot simply flee into Treasuries as they have for years, which means there is little place a hide—a fact which could bring more serious losses.

(New York)

Okay, so there is a lot to be gloomy about with the stock market right now. Stocks had a terrible run last week and are off to a poor start today. However, looking in the longer-term, there is some heartening news. That news is that despite some forecasters saying the demographic backdrop for stocks looks weak as Baby Boomers begin to withdraw money as they retire, all that slack, and perhaps more will be taken up by the Millennial generation, which is the largest in the US.


FINSUM: Here is an additional argument we found interesting—that compared to market history, stock returns for the period from 2000 to 2016 were very weak on a relative basis. Coupled with the demographics, it makes one think there may some long-term potential left for this market.

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