Displaying items by tag: equities

Wednesday, 11 December 2019 11:11

Why Small Caps are Ready to Surge

(Chicago)

Small cap stocks are starting to have their day in the sun. The Russell 200 has started to catch up to large cap indexes this autumn, and some stocks look ready to surge. The index is now up 21.2% for the year, just a few points behind the S&P 500’s 25.5%. According to Merrill Lynch, economic recoveries “tend to be the best phase for small-caps …That’s one key reason we think we could be poised for a shift from large to small”. According to a Jefferies analyst, “I think small is primed to outperform as the economy and earnings improve in 2020 … That’s going to be the whole ballgame”.


FINSUM: It is hard to imagine the US is going to enter an “economic recovery phase” at the end of a ten-year bull run, but the market’s perception of the current economy is exactly that, so these forecasts might be spot on.

Published in Eq: Small Caps
Friday, 19 July 2019 08:56

Falling Yields Driving Gold Higher

(New York)

Falling yields are having a very positive effect on gold. The metal is already enjoying its best first half in years, and the fundamentals for gold look solid. Potential weakness in equities and worries about growth are both stoking gold demand, while lower yields and a weaker Dollar are also supportive. Gold is now being used as a hedge against equities in a way that bonds have traditionally been employed. “The bond market is not acting as a reliable hedge against equity weakness in the way that everyone expected it to and it hasn’t operated that way since 2008. Gold is providing better protection against potential equity weakness right now than bonds are”, says the head of gold strategy at State Street Global Advisors.


FINSUM: Gold seems like it has a nice path to keep its performance going. That said, we are worried rate cuts might spark a more risk-on equity market, which would pull money out of the metal.

Published in Comm: Precious
Tuesday, 09 July 2019 08:40

The Best Cheap Blue Chip Stocks

(New York)

The market may be way up this year, but there are still some great values out there. The average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 16.7, yet 67 of the companies in it trade at below 10, triple the amount of five years ago. Here are a handful of blue chips that are very cheap, but have strong market positions, decent profitability, and nice growth positions: Delta Airlines, Bank of America, Kroger, homebuilder Lennar, and BorgWarner, a maker of car components.


FINSUM: These seem like great picks, but they also appear to be the victims of the long-term decline in value investing. Investors keep thinking value investing will bounce back, but it hasn’t.

Published in Eq: Value
Tuesday, 02 October 2018 09:50

The Stock Market’s Riskiest Sector

(New York)

The best US stock sector of 2018 is also now the market’s most risky. Consumer discretionary stocks have been on a run this year (as they often do when rates are rising), but that may be about to change. According to Morgan Stanley, consumer discretionary, which is composed of retail, apparel companies, and automakers, may be set for a big fall. “An early-cycle sector trading at peak valuations in a late-cycle environment”, is the way Morgan Stanley describes the sector. The average P/E ratio for consumer discretionary stocks is 35% above the S&P 500’s average.


FINSUM: Amazon is disproportionately responsible for the consumer discretionary’s gains this year, but the other stocks in the sector could be good shorting opportunities.

Published in Eq: Consumer
Monday, 01 October 2018 10:50

A New Way to Bet Against Stocks

(New York)

Looking at the market’s performance, it is probably a good time to short some shares. The majority of gains for the sector are being driven by a handful of high-flying tech shares, but the majority of stocks are doing much. Therefore, it seems like a good bet to short certain under-performing sectors. However, the options for doing so aren’t great, as the majority of short ETFs cover the whole market or are heavily leveraged. Now there is a new option though, the AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright Short ETF. The ETF shorts only the market’s 80 to 100 weakest mid and large caps, and it is one of only four short ETFs that don’t seek to replicate an index’s return.


FINSUM: This seems like a very good application of the smart beta concept.

Published in Eq: Total Market
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