Displaying items by tag: earnings

Friday, 09 February 2024 05:38

Earnings Decline for Energy Sector

Lower prices for crude oil and natural gas will lead to a more than 30% decline in earnings for the energy sector in Q4. In contrast, the S&P 500 is expected to see a 1.4% drop in earnings. However, these numbers are somewhat skewed by the 7 largest, mega cap tech stocks which have seen a 53.7% increase in earnings. Subtracting these stocks from the S&P 500 reveals earnings decline of 10.5% for the index.

 

Overall, energy will see the biggest decline in earnings among all sectors. The weakness was recently highlighted by top-line misses for Exxon Mobil and Chevron. The biggest losses are expected in Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing with a 63% contraction in earnings, followed by Integrated Oil & Gas at -34%, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production with a 20% drop. On the other side, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services and Oil & gas Storage & Transportation, both saw earnings growth.

 

Many producers are dealing with a bearish outlook for oil and gas prices due to weaker demand from Europe and China despite elevated geopolitical risks. At the same time, these producers are dealing with higher costs due to inflation, creating incentives to increase revenue by adding production. 


Finsum: As Q4 earnings season enters its later stages, it’s clear that the energy sector will see the biggest decline in earnings. Here are some of the major factors behind the drop. 

 

Published in Eq: Energy
Wednesday, 24 January 2024 02:42

Bonds Weaken Following Hawkish Fed Chatter

Stocks and bonds were both down following comments by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that rate cuts will be implemented slowly. Both are now in the red on a YTD basis. According to Waller, “When the time is right to begin lowering rates, I believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully.” As opposed to previous cycles, when cuts were implemented aggressively and quickly, Waller sees a slower, more gradual pace this time around. 

 

His comments had a chilling effect, especially as financial markets had been in a buoyant mood, looking ahead to rate cuts later this year and the possibility of a ‘soft landing’. While Waller injected a dose of hawkishness, recent economic data has also been on the weak side, adding to recession fears. Needless to say, such developments reduce the odds of a ‘soft landing’ scenario.

 

Currently, Fed futures markets indicate a 60% chance of a cut at the March FOMC meeting. Going into that meeting, inflation and labor market data will be major factors in this decision and market-moving events. Q4 earnings season is also starting, and it will be worth watching whether the improvement in Q3 will continue. The current consensus is for S&P 500 Q4 earnings to increase by 1.6% compared to last year.  


Finsum: Stocks and bonds weakened following hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller. Waller sees a slower pace of rate cuts during this cycle than previous ones.

 

Published in Bonds: Total Market

There was an inflection point for financial markets in October. Soft inflation data resulted in a change in consensus as Fed futures now indicate that the Fed’s next move is more likely to be a rate cut rather than a hike. One of the biggest winners of this dovish shift has been small-cap stocks as the Russell 2000 is up 12.1% over the last 90 days and 8.5% over the past month. Another reason for interest in the sector is that valuations are at historically low levels.

 

In theory, rate cuts are bullish for small-cap stocks since they lead to lower financing costs, puts upward pressure on multiples, and tends to be a leading indicator of an increase in M&A activity. In reality, rate cuts are often necessary due to a weakening economy. Thus, a major variable in whether small-caps deliver stellar returns is whether inflation can continue to moderate without the economy tumbling into a recession. 

 

According to Mike Wilson, CIO and chief US equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, investors should pay close attention to earnings revisions, high frequency economic data, and small business confidence. At the moment, all of these measures are moving in the wrong direction. He adds that for small-cap outperformance to continue, GDP needs to reaccelerate, and inflation needs to stabilize at current levels. 


Finsum: After years of underperformance, small-cap stocks are seeing huge gains on rising odds of a Fed rate cut next year. However, continued outperformance for the sector depends on certain variables.

 

Published in Eq: Small Caps

Corporate executives are warning that the volatile market, combined with the Fed’s rate hikes and the war in Ukraine will negatively impact fourth-quarter earnings, while analysts have downgraded earnings expectations in every sector. However, there may be a bright spot during earnings season, ETF issuers. According to ETF.com data, ETF flows came in at $203 billion in the fourth quarter, nearly double the third quarter's flows of $105 billion. The increase in flows should help fourth-quarter earnings for ETF issuers. It would also be a reversal from the previous quarter when State Street reported $14 billion in net outflows and Schwab’s ETF revenue declined sharply. ETF inflows at BlackRock’s iShares also fell by more than half compared with the third quarter of last year. The surge in inflows during the fourth quarter can be attributed to the rising demand for fixed-income ETFs. Investors are flocking to bond ETFs as they are considered safe havens during downturns. BlackRock President Rob Kapito said on the company’s third-quarter earnings call, “We're going to see dramatic and large inflows into fixed income over the next year as interest rates rise.” ETF.com data shows that fixed-income funds saw inflows of $61 billion in the fourth quarter, up nearly 13% from the $54 billion in the prior-year quarter.  


Finsum:While analysts are predicting a dismal fourth-quarter earnings season, ETF issuers may be a bright spot as fixed-income funds saw inflows of $61 billion during the quarter.

Published in Bonds: Total Market

If DataTrek Research is correct, we can’t expect a new bull market to commence until volatility declines. The research firm said that volatility isn’t expected to decline until two things happen. The first is the Federal Reserve stopping its interest rate hikes and the second is more clarity on corporate earnings expectations as we head into a potential recession next year. The firm believes that if investors can gauge those two factors, then they can capitalize on large stock market returns. They listed the S&P 500's 28% gain in 2003 after the dot-com bubble, the 26% gain in 2009 after the Financial Crisis, and the 61% surge from the COVID-19 low until the end of 2020 as examples. DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas stated, "For volatility to structurally decline and drive those high returns, investors need to have growing confidence they know how corporate earnings will develop. This means they must have a handle on monetary/fiscal policy." At present, investors are not sure about those factors. The Fed recently surprised the market when it indicated that it will likely raise rates by another 75 basis points next year and leave them higher for longer. In addition, analyst earnings estimates are all over the place.


Finsum:According to DataTrek Research, investors shouldn’t expect a new bull market in stocks until the Fed stops rising rates and there is more clarity on earnings expectations.

Published in Wealth Management
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