Displaying items by tag: S&P 500

(New York)

While most banks try to stay bullish on market, Bank of America just couldn’t help but get gloomy this week, very gloomy. The bank says that record high prices and placid volatility mean a big correction looms. They believe the market is underpricing the risk of a Fed policy change, and when that comes, it will hit like a hammer. They even gave a name to these bouts of volatility/correction: “fragility shocks”. According to the bank, “We believe the US equity market is underpricing the risks of a looming tapering cycle. After all, the equity market has feasted on record monetary support post-COVID, and the Fed's outlook remains impaired by the extreme uncertainty in the macro forecasts on which they base their decisions”.

FINSUM: This unfortunately makes quite good sense. However, the opposing force here is that the buy-the-dip mentality is strong right now, which could provide support in any short-term sell-off.

(New York)

UBS just put out a very interesting warning to a large segment of the equity market. As part of their overall market outlook update, UBS explained their view on earnings and the direction of the S&P 500. There are two very notable points they made. Firstly, and most importantly, they reminded investors to stop fretting over valuations. In their words “While valuations are higher than average, we remind investors that valuations have no correlation with market returns over time horizons less than three years … And valuations typically don't contract meaningfully unless investors are concerned about a sharp growth slowdown or a policy error by central banks. And secondly, they think the S&P 500 will rise 11.5% by the end of 2022.

FINSUM: This is a brilliant reminder—equity valuations mean very little and are more a reflection of macro outlook than a concern in their own right.

(New York)

Usually big Wall Street banks are pretty moderate in their outlooks, and they are mostly bullish in general. Well, Bank of America Merrill Lynch didn’t hold back this week when they said the S&P 500 was at risk of a 16.5% tumble in the near term. The bank said that it expects the S&P 500 to fall 20 to 30 bp for every basis point increase in the ten-year Treasury. The bank thinks yields will rise 55 bp by the end the year, implying an up to 16.5% tumble in stocks. The bank says valuations are overstretched by almost every metric.

FINSUM: The bank did point out three sectors it felt were safer, which are energy, communications services, and health care.

(New York)

The post-pandemic run has been marked by staggeringly low volatility and all-time highs in both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. However…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site.

(New York)

Expensive stocks are the norm these days as P/E ratios are near all-time highs…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site.