Displaying items by tag: ETFs

Following poor performance in Q3, fixed income is struggling to start the new quarter. SImilar to Q3, the bulk of weakness is in long-duration bonds. This is evident with the iShares 20+ Year Bond ETF (TLT) which fell to its lowest levels since August 2007. Remarkably, TLT is now at levels prior to the entire bond bull market which began at the depths of the financial crisis as central banks embarked on more than a decade of ultra-easy policy to support the economy.

So far, TLT is down 13% year to date. It’s the largest fixed income ETF, and many investors’ preferred vehicle to get exposure to long-term Treasuries. There is some disagreement on the causes behind the move in long-term yields with some pointing to large amounts of Treasuries that will be auctioned off in the coming months to finance the federal government’s deficits. Others believe that the bond market is finally accepting the reality that inflation is now entrenched and that higher rates are here to stay. 

Some with a longer-term view don’t see much unusual about the breakout in long-term yields given that this tends to happen when central banks embark on tightening policy. As a result, we are seeing the curve un-invert as the spread in yields between short-duration and long-duration bonds continue to shrink.

Finsum: TLT is the most popular fixed income ETF. It’s now at its lowest levels since 2007 as long-term Treasury yields break out to new highs.

Despite a down Q3, retail investors continue piling into fixed income ETFs, both long and short-duration. They don’t seem too fazed by the recent hawkishness from the Fed or recent calls for continued strength in yields. 

Last week, inflows into the most popular Treasury ETF - the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) reached its highest levels since March 2020. In Q3, TLT was down 13%. This turned a small yearly gain into a more than 10% decline. Despite this performance, TLT has had $4 billion of inflows in Q3 and has seen short interest decline as well. 

Clearly, retail investors have a contrarian bent as many strategists are calling for further weakness in bonds, and Fed fund futures markets increased their odds of further hikes while decreasing odds of cuts in 2024. 

Some of the inflows into fixed income may be due to concerns about equities and economic growth given recent soft labor and consumption data over the last few weeks. THerefore, they may be looking to take advantage of the highest yields in decades and the potential for price appreciation in the event of a recession or further cooling of inflation. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are seeing continued inflows despite poor performance in Q3. Here are why retail investors may be buying the dip.

Equity and fixed income markets were battered following the September FOMC meeting where the committee left rates unchanged but the committee members’ dot plots for the future trajectory of monetary policy and Chair Powell’s press conference had a decidedly hawkish tilt. 

The message was that another rate hike is likely before year end and that rates are likely to stay elevated for longer. Thus, Fed futures markets reduced the odds of rate cuts in 2024, leading to pain for the long-end of the fixed income complex. In contrast, the short-end of the curve saw major inflows as investors look to shield their portfolio from volatility and take advantage of high rates. 

Following the Fed meeting, there was $25.3 million of inflows into the iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF which was about 40% of the total inflows in the previous month. This marks an acceleration of a trend which began last quarter of outflows from longer-term Treasury ETFs and inflows into short-duration Treasury ETFs. 

Supporting this notion is the uncertainty over the economy and monetary policy as this tends to lead to volatility for long-duration assets. Additionally, the flatness of the yield curve means that there isn’t sufficient compensation for the additional duration risk.  

Finsum: Most of the fixed income complex suffered losses following the hawkish FOMC meeting, but one exception was short-duration Treasury ETFs. 

Fixed income markets have faced a major headwind over the last 21 months given the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes. Regardless, money poured into fixed income ETFs at a record pace even outpacing equity ETFs for the first time in history. Investors were willing to overlook poor, near-term performance due to attractive yields and a shaky economic outlook.

Now, this trend could accelerate further given that the Fed seems to be in the final innings of its tightening campaign, while concerns about valuation in equities linger. Therefore, many believe that the growth of fixed income ETFs relative to equity ETFs is not a blip, but the start of a multiyear trend. And, asset managers are responding with a bevy of new fixed income ETF launches.

Overall, inflows to fixed income ETFs are up nearly 10% compared to last year. Many are eager to lock in these elevated yields especially in areas with lower risk like Treasuries. Of course, the major challenge for fixed income investors is assessing if a pivot in policy will arrive imminently or are we due for a period of ‘higher for longer’. In the latter scenario, short-duration bonds will outperform, while long-duration will struggle. 

Finsum: Fixed income ETFs are seeing a surge in new issuances and inflows. Find out why many expect this trend to continue over the next few years.

Bonds tend to go down for two reasons - an increase in default risk and rising interest rates. This supports the idea that current weakness in bonds is primarily due to the increase in rates as the default rate remains quite low.

This combination of high rates and low defaults is the ideal environment for high yield fixed income. Investors can take advantage of elevated yields. As long as the economy stays resilient, the default risk will remain low. If the economy starts to weaken, the default risk will likely start ticking higher, but this would also prompt a loosening of Fed policy which would be a positive catalyst for fixed income. 

For Vettafi, Todd Rosenbluth shares 3 high yield fixed income ETFs that are worth considering. The iShares $ iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is the largest and most well-known. It pays a 5.7% yield and is composed mostly of B and BB-rated bonds. 

For investors who want more safety in terms of credit quality, the VanEck Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (ANGL) pays a 5.0% yield and is composed of higher-quality bonds rated above BB. Rosenbluth points out that ANGL has seen particularly strong inflows in recent weeks. 

Finsum: High yield fixed income is generating interest among investors. Not surprising given elevated yields even despite low default rates.