Displaying items by tag: retail

Thursday, 20 September 2018 07:35

Why Amazon Should Split Itself Up

(Seattle)

A provocative headline, we know. But it turns out there are some good reasons why Amazon should consider splitting itself up before regulators do. There are two big reasons the company should consider cleaving itself. The first is that if regulators eventually do it, it will likely be much more messy and painful. But secondly, and perhaps more interestingly, Amazon’s web services business has become so large that it is starting to negatively impact its retail business. Amazon web services (AWS) accounted for more than 100% of the company’s operating income, and analysts estimate it would be worth $600 bn on its own, versus just $400 bn for the retail business. Its might is now getting in the way, however, as former AWS customers like Target have now moved away from using it because the don’t want to share information with Amazon’s retail business, which is a major competitor.


FINSUM: We are quite sure this won’t happen any time soon, but it is beginning to be easier to see the value in doing so.

Published in Eq: Tech
Wednesday, 12 September 2018 10:01

The Best Retail Stock?

(New York)

Retail has had a great year, but looks to be facing headwinds moving forward as executives and analysts have all downgraded forecasts for the sector. However, one area of retail that looks to remain very hot are off-price stores, or discount retailers. Such retailers are seen as largely immune to ecommerce because of their treasure-hunt experience for customers and their high turnover model, which makes them less susceptible to online retailers. Accordingly, they held up well even during retail’s rout. One stock that looks likely to do well now is Burlington Stores. The reason why is that it is behind leaders TJ Max and Ross in that it has not yet optimized its operating model for the current environment, but is beginning to. This is not reflected in its stock, which means it has a great deal of upside.


FINSUM: Retail is one of the sectors we feel we have special insight into, and we definitely agree that off-price stores are going to hold up well moving forward.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Monday, 10 September 2018 09:54

Retail is in Trouble Again

(New York)

Retail stocks have had a very good run over the last year. The first half of 2017 was about as bleak as it could get for retail, which is in the midst of a major disruption caused by ecommerce. However, stocks posed a big rebound over the last twelve months on the back of consumer spending and tightened business models. However, the sector might be set for more trouble as Wall Street analysts have just downgraded about 60% of the S&P’s retail index, giving profit warnings despite good consumer spending. One analyst summed it up this way, saying “The pendulum swung too far: retail never died, but it’s likely not as healthy as people think, either … After a very strong first half, it would seem management teams feel the need to reset the bar, to bring hype back to reality”.


FINSUM: The truth is that the disruption of the industry is far from over and there is likely to be a lot more turmoil, perhaps especially in the next recession, when price competition gets even more fierce.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Tuesday, 28 August 2018 08:49

These Retail Stocks May Surge

(New York)

Retail as a whole has had a great last twelve months after a very rough ride beforehand. Some think the run is going to continue as the US economy stays strong. That may be the case, but there is one segment of retail that looks likely to do particularly well—footwear. According to a number of analysts, footwear sales like likely to shine across the retail landscape. Everything from Nike, to Michael Kors, to Steve Madden, to Stuart Weitzman all have positive analyst outlooks in the near term.


FINSUM: Retail often does well in Q4 because of colder weather driving spending in higher margin items, so perhaps footwear could benefit.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Friday, 17 August 2018 08:45

Luxury Stocks are Facing a Big Threat

(New York)

If you hold luxury retail stocks or are thinking of doing so, think again. With all the fears over a trade war, many luxury stocks look vulnerable. While Gucci owner Kering and Louis Vuitton owner LVMH look insulated, look out for weakness in Burberry, Salvatore Ferragamo, and Swatch. The first two look particularly weak because they are trying to regain traction with consumers at the same time as facing trade tensions (as opposed to Gucci, which is very hot at the moment). Most luxury stocks are currently trading at a premium relative to the market.


FINSUM: In our view, the brands that are already hot are going to stay on the shelves, but ones that haven’t been selling as well will be more impacted by trade tensions as wholesalers can more easily just stop stocking them.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
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