Jay Powell, head of the Fed, has been working on a year-long project to overhaul one of the Fed’s most important goals. That goal is full employment. The Fed only has two mandates, stable prices in the economy, and maximum employment. Yet the definition of maximum employment is now up for debate. At the core of the consideration is the idea that having a job is different than having a good job. The difference between the two means the Fed may use a different calculation for measuring employment. That potential change has huge implications, as it would likely lead to looser monetary policy both in the immediate future and further out.
FINSUM: We think there is a big difference between the quality of different jobs in the economy which needs to be accounted for by the Fed. The current way of measuring employment was designed when most jobs were permanent and full-time, but with the rise of the gig economy, measuring methods need to shift to account for the changing nature of the labor market.
One of the best indicators of the health of the economy from the last several years has been the strength of the labor market. In particular, low unemployment and jobless claims have highlighted a tight labor market traditionally associated with a strong economy. However, what if the opposite was the case? Recent academic studies show a new recession indicator: full employment. Historically, downturns have typically started about 12 months following the lowest unemployment rate reached in a cycle.
FINSUM: We are currently at 3.7% unemployment, which is VERY low. It seems like the economy is exactly in the “12 months from a recession” position, at least according to this research.
Is the US economy breaking out of its short-term data tailspin? Maybe. This week has seen some improved news, none more so than new hiring data released this morning. US hiring in March was much better, with the economy creating 196,000 jobs, significantly higher than forecasted and up hugely from February’s barely positive numbers. Wage growth decreased slightly in pace, but was solid at 3.2%. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%.
FINSUM: This could mean the weak data recently was just a blip and things are still on course. The data is lining up to show this might have been a big bond market overreaction…
The whole market has been on recession watch mode lately. The Fed has gone seriously dovish and weak economic data seems to be emerging by the day. However, some good news, at last: US jobless data just clocked in at the lowest level in 50 years, showing that the labor market is still tight. The numbers were in contrast to economists’ estimates for higher claims. Claims have fallen this far recently, but been revised higher later.
FINSUM: This is good news but it may not be indicative of much as this data could be slightly behind the hiring numbers, which have been weak recently.
Another day, another round of bad news on the economy. In what comes as another round of disappointing data, GDP for the fourth quarter was just revised downward from 2.6% to 2.2%, showing the economy finished the year on a softer note than expected. The data adds to the list of poor numbers—labor, housing etc—that have been hitting investors.
FINSUM: Weak economic and housing data have been flowing like a hose lately, and today is no different. This will only add to the downward momentum in yields.