Displaying items by tag: bonds

Thursday, 09 January 2020 15:38

The Big Risk to Muni Bonds

(New York)

There is big risk to the muni bond market that you are probably aren’t thinking about. That risk is how increasingly frequent weather-related calamities are befalling US cities as the climate changes. The market is already starting to price these risks, and according to BlackRock, many current muni bond issuers could see 1% knocked of their economic output. According to the head of muni bonds at BNY Mellon, “The risk has been identified by market participants … Looking at the severity of storms picking up . . . it will start to be factored in”. When choosing bonds, investors need to start demanding or checking on plans from issuers. “What plans are they making? Are they hardening their infrastructure . . . are they trying to insulate central services? If they’re just stating the obvious, that’s not sufficient”, says BNY Mellon.


FINSUM: This is an important consideration for all those that hold munis. Think of the weather-related calamities that have happened lately and consider the implications (e.g. Houston).

Published in Bonds: Munis
Tuesday, 31 December 2019 09:44

The Yield Curve is Sending an Important Signal

(New York)

For around a year now, the yield curve has been scaring investors. The inversion of the curve sent a grave warning sign to the market that a recession may be on its way. Many investors fled the market for fear of a big reversal. However, as we enter 2020, the yield curve is sending a very different signal—optimism. The curve is at its steepest level since October 2018, showing investors’ increasing confidence in the US economy. One CIO described the situation this way, saying “If the stock market is right that everything is amazing, I don’t see how long rates can stay as low as they are … The stock market is rallying on hope. Hope that things will inflect higher with this trade deal and Fed accommodation”.


FINSUM: If there is one thing we have learned in the last decade, it is that the Fed does not want to over-hike on rates. Overall, we think this is a very healthy direction for yields.

Published in Bonds: Treasuries
Monday, 30 December 2019 11:32

Bond ETFs are Surging

(New York)

It has taken a long time for bond ETFs to begin getting even a tiny bit of the attention stock ETFs have gotten, but the trend has finally taken hold in earnest, and that s good news for investors. While active bond funds have done well in recent years (perhaps due to it being considered easier to outperform a bond index than a stock index), bond ETFs have now started to surpass them in growth. This is adding much more liquidity to bond funds, which benefits investors substantially. Both active and passive bond funds have taken in over $200 bn each in 2019.


FINSUM: While “liquidity mismatch” worries will continue to linger, the fact is that bond ETFs make a lot of sense (perhaps even more than stock ETFs?) because they circumvent minimum-buy and illiquidity issues, allowing many more people to access hard-to-reach corners of the bond market.

Published in Bonds: Total Market
Monday, 23 December 2019 09:37

Junk Bond Markets Might Get Spooked

(New York)

The media is currently doing its level best to scare junk bond investors. There have been many analyst and media warnings lately about the pending fall of high yield bonds (some of which we have featured). Most argue that in an economic downturn, BBB bonds will suffer. Others says there has been no rise in underlying performance to justify the rise in prices. Others have focused on CCCs and their movements. Initially the worry was that CCCs had not rallied like the rest of the market, which was taken as a sign of deteriorating credit conditions. Now the media is warning (see Barron’s) that since they have rallied, it is again a warning sign.


FINSUM: Everything is a warning sign! Our own feeling is that we are generally moving toward a more risk-on environment and the trend for high yield is improving as the economic outlook does.

Published in Bonds: High Yield
Friday, 20 December 2019 14:09

Moody’s Puts Out Major Junk Bond Warning

(New York)

One of the biggest ratings agencies on Wall Street has just put out a stern warning on the junk bond market. Moody’s says that high yield debt may fall “significantly” after a big rally this year. In a quote that captures the general disbelief that has accompanied the junk bond rally this year, Moody’s economist John Lonski says ““High-yield bonds have rallied mightily despite the lack of any observable broad-based acceleration of either business sales or corporate earnings”. Moody’s thinks that if performance of the underlying companies in the space does not improve, then there will be a reckoning, saying ““If the anticipated improvement in the fundamentals governing corporate credit quality do not materialise, a significant widening of high-yield bond spreads is likely”.


FINSUM: Irrational exuberance?

Published in Bonds: High Yield
Page 84 of 150

Contact Us

Newsletter

Subscribe

Subscribe to our daily newsletter

Top
We use cookies to improve our website. By continuing to use this website, you are giving consent to cookies being used. More details…