Displaying items by tag: yields

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting a five-week peak of 3.039%, while the 30-year yield climbed to a seven-week high of 3.268%. Yields rose as investors await a Federal Reserve gathering occurring later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed is widely expected to reinforce its commitment to tackling inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Friday morning at the Jackson Hole symposium. Last week's Fed minutes appeared to suggest that the Fed is on course to continue to increase interest rates with the central bank seeing "little evidence" that inflation was easing. The auction for shorter-dated coupons this week also added to the sell-off in Treasuries, pushing their yields higher. Traders typically sell Treasuries before an auction and then buy them back at a lower price. 


Finsum: Treasuries hit multi-week highs on Monday as investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday morning at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Published in Bonds: Treasuries

The U.S. had two consecutive quarters of negative growth meeting the technical requirements of a recession, and for the first time in over 40 years that coincided with very high inflation. Tasked with generating high returns in a stagflation environment investors are turning to an odd place, emerging markets. While some EM has suffered as a result of a stronger dollar and Fed tightening, pockets are promising to bring big returns in higher growth environments abroad. Countries relying on exports will have a difficult time, but countries like India, Malaysia, and Indonesia all have fairly robust domestic consumer demand and are quick-growing economies. The last country is an oddball but China has continued to deliver stimulus throughout the pandemic and may put itself in a good position to capture investor attention.


Finsum: Equities abroad are ultra-low, finding the right countries with domestic consumer support could be very profitable.

Published in Eq: EMs
Thursday, 12 May 2022 21:04

International Active Bond Fund Outperformance

Markets are in turmoil which has investors looking for more secure options, but American bonds are a risky option with rising yields (falling prices), which means active international is in a good position. Over the last year, 82% of active bonds have outperformed, and while that doesn’t hold up in the long run the unique conditions put them in a good position. International bonds can offer less interest rate risk, already better yields, and comparable credit profiles. The added advantage of international active funds is investors can make hedges with currency trading which can allow investors to hedge or leverage for more potential gains.


Finsum: The Fed will continue to put pressure on both bonds and equities in the U.S., and investors need a backup plan.

Published in Bonds: Total Market
Wednesday, 20 April 2022 19:35

Time to Harvest those Fixed Income Losses

It's never too early to begin thinking about tax-loss harvesting and there is a ripe situation in the bond market. The yield curve has been on the rise due to Fed tightening and inflation. Rising yields mean lower bond prices and ETF owners have taken a bath. Selling off those funds right now could give you a tax advantage later this year. However, investors should get out of the fixed income route altogether. Markets are beginning to show signs of a recession or straight volatility so replacing your bond ETF with another fixed-income ETF could help in the case of a recession. Or if bond prices begin to take off it's a good option to have some skin in the game.


Finsum: The wash rule makes harvesting losses in equity markets a bit difficult, but the plethora of bond funds and options gives investors better ability to harvest losses now.

Published in Bonds: Total Market
Monday, 18 April 2022 20:03

Bonds See Worst Month Since Financial Crisis

The bond market has taken a beating and investment-grade debt has been anything but a safe haven for income investors. This has been one of the third-worst stretches in history as the YTD returns have been -10.5% which is only bested by the Lehman collapse in late 2008 where returns crept to -14.3% and Volcker’s days of battling high inflation and hiking rates. Investors are selling off investment-grade debt as the risk-free rates on Treasuries are climbing as the Fed’s tightening cycle is beginning. These rising yields are all corporate bond ETFs and driving returns down, but things could get worse as rates will only continue to rise and inflation is only beginning.


Finsum: Income investors need to look to active funds or abroad if they want relief in the bond market.

Published in Bonds: Total Market
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