Displaying items by tag: stocks

(Washington)

This week was a big one for infrastructure stocks. After years of discussion, Biden took action and put forth an eye-opening $3 tn package (in two parts) for American infrastructure. The package would focus on infrastructure, education, work force development, and fighting climate change. The aim is to make the economy more productive. However, for the stock market, one of the immediate benefits is how such government dollars would affect infrastructure stocks. Most specifically, look at the following sectors: machines, construction, and materials stocks.


FINSUM: $3 tn is a great deal of money, and a lot of it will likely flow into the private sector to fulfil these mandates. Time to dig in and pick winners. We will continue coverage on this in the coming week.

Published in Eq: Materials
Tuesday, 16 March 2021 18:43

Big Trouble Looms in the Nasdaq

(New York)

The Nasdaq is behaving very oddly and it should give investors pause. It is very rare for the Nasdaq and the Dow to be this out of sync. A couple days ago the Nasdaq outperformed the DJIA by 3.5%+, something it had not done in 20 years. Some take this as a sign of bullishness, but in reality, historical precedents say that when the Dow and Nasdaq are out of sync it is bad news. In fact, the only other time the two indices were this out of sync was the dotcom bubble.


FINSUM: The bottom line here is that major Nasdaq volatility in excess of Dow moves are not good. That means days like last Friday should be feared rather than celebrated. Stay vigilant.

Published in Eq: Tech

(New York)

The market has been highly unpredictable of late, with big swings in both directions. While no one knows where the market is headed, one thing is pretty clear: there are a handful of big stocks that look very risky and should probably be avoided. Here is a full list: Carvana, Expedia, Norwegian Cruise Lines, Lyft, Restoration Hardware, Beyond Meat, FirstSolar, Zendesk, BioMarin Pharmaceuticals, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).


FINSUM: Carvana and Expedia are the most interesting for us. Carvana is considered disruptive in auto buying and is up 535% in the last year. It is also losing money hand over fist, and its digital-first method of buying and delivery looks less and less effective as the economy reopens (especially because Carvana’s prices for consumers are high). Expedia is more simple: it is up big this year on hopes that travel bookings will recover strongly this year and next. But why is it currently trading at a 40% premium to the S&P 500? Doesn’t make sense to us.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Monday, 14 December 2020 12:59

Goldman Says a Sizable Correction Isn’t Coming

(New York)

Goldman Sachs went on the record with a bold call last week. They told investors that despite all the fears in the market, a big correction WAS NOT coming. Alessio Rizzi and his team at Goldman say that many indicators are showing a bullish outlook, and that big losses don’t seem likely. According to Rizzi, “more moderate risky asset returns are likely from here, rather than an imminent risk of a sizable correction”. One indicator Goldman cited as very bullish was the ratio between puts and calls. Right now the market is deeply favoring calls, with the ratio nearing the limits of its normal distribution.


FINSUM: So bulls look at this and say “aha, I’m right, the market will rise”; and bears say “exactly as expected, this is a contrarian indicator”! In our opinion, on the whole, there is plenty to be optimistic about.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Monday, 14 December 2020 12:58

Why This Tech Winning Streak Means More to Come

(New York)

Tech shares have been doing very well recently. This has given rise to renewed fears of overvaluation and a market correction. In the ten days leading up to December 8th,the Nasdaq 100 jumped 5.3%. While this makes some nervous after a year of huge gains for tech, history tells us this likely means more gains are coming. There have only been 10 times ion history when the Nasdaq 100 went on a ten-day winning streak, and the average gain in the year following was 19%.


FINSUM: The point here is that even if value stocks do well—which they have been as the economic outlook has brightened—tech stocks don’t look bearish by any means.

Published in Eq: Tech
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