Displaying items by tag: oil

In an article previewing the first quarter earnings season for the energy sector for Zacks Investment Research, Sheraz Mian discussed the major factors for why analysts are forecasting 2023 earnings to decline by about 21% compared to 2022. 

The major factor is that prices are down by about 25% when compared to last year. Additionally, costs are going up faster than expected, leading to downwards pressure on margins. Given these uncertainties, companies continue to be conservative in terms of CAPEX and optimizing balance sheet health.  

In terms of the outlook for crude oil prices in 2023, the major headwind is weaker demand as economic growth decelerates across the world. Many expect the US economy to stumble into a recession later this year as the Fed keeps rates high to tamp down on inflationary pressures. Additionally, Chinese growth has also been less robust than expected following the end of its Covid policies. 

This is sufficient enough of a headwind to offset bullish impulses from OPEC cutting production, sanctions on Russian oil production, and the US government restocking its depleted crude oil inventories. 

Finsum: Earnings for the energy sector are expected to be down 21% compared to last year as recession concerns dominate. 

In an article for the Financial Times, Derek Brower discussed recent weakness in energy stocks due to increasing worries of a recession despite a recent string of strong earnings reports. This follows a two year rally which was fueled by production cuts in 2020, a better than expected economy, and the war in Ukraine. 

Last year, the energy sector was up more than 50%, while the S&P 500 finished down double-digits. This year in contrast, the S&P 500 has an 8% gain, while the energy sector is down 5%.

According to Wall Street analysts, investors are looking past companies’ strong results due to expectations that recent trouble in the banking sector will translate into reduced economic activity and demand for crude oil. 

Another indication is that dividend yields in energy stocks are nearly double those found in financial stocks and quadruple those of tech stocks. Inflation is proving to be a significant headwind as production costs have increased, eroding margins with lower oil prices. Another is that productivity in the Permian Basin has declined by 30% over the last 2 years, another reason that margin contraction is likely.

Finsum: Following major outperformance in 2022, energy stocks have underperformed so far this year due to increasing recession fears.

In an article for Oilprice.com, Alex Kimani discussed three reasons why Goldman Sachs is bullish on the energy sector. The bank sees Brent and WTI crude oil trending higher to $100 and $95 per barrel over the next 12 months, respectively. 

The bank sees faster growth in China as supportive of commodity demand overall. Regarding energy, it sees supply pressures from OPEC+ production cuts, embargoes on Russian crude shipments and global growth as key drivers.

Some other reasons cited for favoring energy are attractive valuations. Currently, it has a P/E ratio of 6.7 which is the cheapest among the 11 major sectors, and this is considerably cheaper than the S&P 500’s P/E of 22. 

Despite a slowing economy and lower energy prices, Q1 earnings have remained quite strong. Net margins improved from 11.8% to 10.4%. This is in contrast to most sectors which are experiencing margin compression. Further, earnings are forecast to remain stable over the next couple of years due to low capex, higher costs for new projects, and geopolitical risk. 

Overall, energy stocks offer investors attractive valuations and robust earnings growth potential. The longer-term picture remains attractive due to longer-term supply trends, while demand is expected to remain steady.

On March 15th, the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for global oil demand in 2023 by another 100,000 b/d as rebounding air traffic and pent-up Chinese demand push consumption to record highs. In its latest monthly oil report, the energy watchdog said it now sees global oil demand averaging 102.02 million b/d in 2023. That’s 2 million b/d higher than in 2022. The IEA estimates that gains will accelerate over the year, rising to 2.6 million b/d year on year in the fourth quarter, from 710,000 b/d in the current quarter. In the report, IEA stated, "Global oil demand growth started 2023 with a whimper but is projected to end the year with a bang .... Rebounding jet fuel use and a resurgent China will see an overall Q1-Q4 ramp-up of 3.2 million b/d, the largest relative in-year increase since 2010 with oil use surging to 103.2 million b/d in second-half 2023." The agency attributes the rise in demand to China's economic momentum, with rebounding February Purchasing Managers' Index data and robust air traffic demand. The IEA said Chinese mobility mostly stabilized after January's "remarkable bounce." It also added that Chinese air traffic with domestic flights is now well above pre-pandemic levels. Due to this, the IEA raised its estimate for Chinese jet/kerosene demand by 60,000 b/d.

Finsum:In its recent monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for global oil demand this year by another 100,000 b/d as rebounding air traffic and pent-up Chinese demand push consumption to record highs.

While many ESG investors are drawn to the appeal of helping the environment with their investments, the two-year rally in oil and gas stocks has become too much to ignore. The energy sector has led the market for two years rising 135% in 2021 and 2022 compared with a 2.2% gain in the S&P 500 Index. Analysts expect the sector to jump another 22% in 2023, despite its 5.8% decline so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ESG firms have taken notice. Rockefeller Capital Management takes pride in its ESG investing record. While the firm’s larger portfolio follows multiple strategies that include ESG and non-ESG, its $19 billion equity portfolio now has a 6% energy weighting. This is even more than the S&P 500’s energy weighting of 4.8%. Plus, clients in Rockefeller’s wealth management arm, which is separate from its asset management arm, have almost tripled their holdings in Chevron Corp. In fact, the stake’s value has quintupled to $251 million over two years. Their clients have also been buying tens of thousands of shares in Brazilian oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc., and several other S&P 500 Energy Index members, including Exxon Mobil Corp. and APA Corp.

Finsum:With a massive two-year run, and a strong return expected this year, energy stocks have attracted clients of firms such as Rockefeller Capital Management that take pride in their ESG investing record.