Displaying items by tag: financials

Monday, 15 April 2019 13:22

Goldman’s Profits Tumble

(New York)

Goldman Sachs investors took it on the chin this week. Earnings numbers just released look pretty grim, especially as compared to some other banks, like JP Morgan, which had good showings. The bank got hit by a triple whammy of lower trading revenues, weaker private equity profits, and lower fees from investment banking, all of which conspired to bring earnings down by 20% in the first quarter. David Solomon, CEO, is promising the company is undertaking a “front to back” performance review of Goldman’s businesses.


FINSUM: This looks particularly poor because JP Morgan was able to achieve the highest ever quarterly profit of a US bank during the same period.

Published in Eq: Financials
Wednesday, 03 April 2019 12:32

Beware These Dividend Stocks

(New York)

Investors are always looking for good yields. While bonds are seeing higher yields now, high paying stocks offer something special because of the chance of capital appreciation. Such investors might be tempted by financial stocks right now, which are sporting juicy yields. However, Goldman Sachs is warning that investors need to beware. JP Morgan and other banks have been beaten up over the last year and are sporting payouts of above 3% in some cases. However, the big risk that is financial stocks are highly rate sensitive and tend to lose value as rates fall because of their lower profitability in such times. This pushes up dividends, but moves prices lower.


FINSUM: If you think we are even close to heading into a recession, buying financials is not a good idea. If you think this is a false signal, then banks may be a great buying opportunity right now.

Published in Eq: Dividends
Tuesday, 26 March 2019 11:24

Why Bank Stocks May Jump

(New York)

When you first read that headline, you probably thought it was pretty counterintuitive. Bank stocks saw a big selloff and it is looking ever more likely that we are headed towards a recession—certainly not bullish for bank shares. However, RBC Capital markets argues that bank stocks may actually do well. “The recent sell-off in bank stocks provides an opportunity for investors to buy bank stocks”, says RBC. The reason why is that in periods where the economy slows, but an outright recession is avoided, bank shares outperform. This happened from 1994 to 1998.


FINSUM: This could be a good value play if we avoid a recession, but that seems like a gamble with asymmetric risk to the downside.

Published in Eq: Financials
Wednesday, 27 February 2019 13:41

Big Warnings for Bank Stocks

(New York)

If you hold bank shares, now might be a good time to pay attention. JP Morgan just put out a warning yesterday, and it is the type that seems likely to be representative of the whole industry. The bank warned of a “high teens” percentage fall in trading revenue. Most analysts have been expecting much more modest falls of around 3%.


FINSUM: Trading revenue falls tend to sweep across the big banks all at once as they are all subject to the same market conditions and underlying investor sentiment.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Friday, 01 February 2019 12:26

Why Bank Stocks Look Favorable

(New York)

On the surface of it, this does not seem like a good time to buy bank stocks. Bank shares have done really well in the last month, but the Fed’s sudden and dramatic dovishness on rates would seem to be a catalyst for a move lower in bank shares. Countering that theory stands Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo, an equity analyst who thinks the picture of bank shares looks better. Many big bank stocks are trading at relatively cheap 10x p/e ratios, with yields of 3% or more. According to Mayo, “The negative sentiment has created an opportunity with uniquely attractive valuations”. Banks are also expected to do a large amount of buybacks in 2019, with some like Wells Fargo and Citi, expected to spend more than 100% of earnings on dividends and buybacks.


FINSUM: Banks do seem like a good value play. But at the same time, they have been trading for years more on a macro basis. Which side seems more realistic? Stick with the trend—bank stocks now have a weaker outlook because of the Fed.

Published in Eq: Financials
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