Displaying items by tag: US

Thursday, 25 July 2019 10:12

Good News in US Real Estate

(New York)

It has been years since there was much good news in US real estate. The market has been slightly pessimistic for years, but finally there might be some reason for optimism. New home sales actually rose in June, a sign that health is improving in the all-important US property sector. Sales increased 7% from May, but the average home price stayed flat from one year ago at $310,400.


FINSUM: With rates likely to fall and yields having already tumbled, it would not be surprising to see a short-term pop in real estate. It would actually be quite worrying if that doesn’t happen.

Published in Eq: Real Estate

(Beijing)

There have been a lot of stories, admittedly in this publication too, that have diminished the threat of the current trade war with China for the US economy. In a very direct sense, that may be true, but there is a lot of misunderstanding about the Chinese economy. Most people think that China is currently slowing because of the trade war with the US, but that is not really the case. The much bigger issue is that the country’s credit boom has run its course and the government is running out of options to boost growth. The credit boom was caused by the government needing to stimulate consumer spending in an effort to spur a domestic consumption economy, but credit has more or less reached it limits, and therefore, so has the economy.


FINSUM: If China has a big contraction/meltdown, it will ripple across all the countries who are part of its ecosystem, including all the EMs in the region, Africa, and then ultimately the big developed economies with which it is now inextricably linked.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Thursday, 18 July 2019 09:06

The Trade Truce is Rapidly Evaporating

(Washington)

Markets breathed a big sigh of relief at the G20 a few weeks ago when Trump announced that after meeting with Xi, China had agreed to return to the negotiating table with the US. This sent expectations surging that a trade deal between Washington and Beijing was within reach. However, all that hope seems to have been for nothing, as Trump and China are reportedly having trouble even making it back to the table because of being at odds over Huawei.


FINSUM: To be honest, we think the US and China are so at odds over trade that it is hard to imagine they will be able to resolve these tensions any time soon. Some are even saying this is going to be the Cold War 2.0.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Friday, 05 July 2019 08:51

Our Call—Trump and China Will Make a Deal

(Washington)

Will the US and China make a substantial trade deal? That is a trillion Dollar question for markets. Some argue that China may defer doing any deal and take the risk that Trump does not win the election, effectively letting the clock run out. However, an astute view is that China might be desperate to do deal while Trump is still in office. The reason why is that if Trump were to lose to a Democrat, who in all likelihood would be a more conventional US president that takes a much friendlier approach with international allies, then China would be in a very compromised position. A Democratic president would likely approach the Chinese trade deal with a much more united front of trade allies, which would be a worst case scenario for Beijing.


FINSUM: The irony of this is that Trump has been by far the hardest president on China in memory, but at the same time, the Chinese have the best chance at a good resolution by dealing with him.

Published in Eq: China
Monday, 01 July 2019 09:42

Commodities are Rallying for Many Reasons

(Houston)

Something very interesting is happening across commodities markets—they are rallying. The reason this is interesting is it is a broad-based rally, not just in a narrow safe haven like gold. Oil, a major barometer for growth, is also jumping. The reasons why are two-part. Firstly, the US and China seemed to ease trade tensions somewhat this week at the G20; but secondly, OPEC has said it is cutting oil output. Metals, grains, and emerging markets also rallied.


FINSUM: This makes sense because a de-escalation of the trade war would help the global economy. Further, a reduction in tariffs would simply make the flow of commodities and goods smoother once again.

Published in Eq: Energy
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