Displaying items by tag: retail

Thursday, 16 August 2018 08:51

Ditch Tech Stocks and Buy Retail

(New York)

One of the most famous hedge fund managers just made what seems a bold and countercyclical move. That manager is David Einhorn, and the move is to ditch all tech stocks and buy retail instead. In its most recent quarterly filings, Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital bought shares of Gap, Best Buy, Dollar General, TJX Companies, and Dollar Tree, all while significantly pairing holdings of Apple and Micron Technology.


FINSUM: Retail has had a good run over the last year, but the industry is still facing some major headwinds. We think buying retail now seems like a macro bet that the US economy will stay strong.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Tuesday, 14 August 2018 08:19

How the Retail Rally Might Die

(New York)

Since their low in 2017, retail stocks have been on a great run, rising about 35%. The question for investors is where the market goes from here. After easily outpacing the market, retail could face some headwinds, though analysts are still generally positive. Some say cost pressures are rising quickly and will hurt earnings, while others say such assumptions are overstated and that earnings should be fine.


FINSUM: Rising consumer confidence has really helped lift the sector out of its doldrums, but any economic peak could also prove the high point for retail. If you think this cycle has already peaked, then retail would seem vulnerable.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Monday, 13 August 2018 09:14

Retail Still Looks Like a Good Buy

(New York)

2017 was a terrible year for the retail sector. It was nothing short of an apocalypse. Thousands for stores were closing, dozens of brands going bankrupt, and big stock sell-offs. It was the first phase of the predicted meltdown to be caused by the shift to ecommerce. However, this year retail stocks have soared, with the leading retail ETF (XRT) up 35% from its low last year. That said, there are still some great buys. The sector’s overall P/E is still just 16.4, well below its historical average of 18.8. Store closings have stabilized margins and consumer confidence and spending are rising, a strong proposition for the sector. Some good names to look at are Kohl’s, Gap, and Michael Kors.


FINSUM: Retailers are starting to figure out how to navigate the new ecommerce-driven paradigm, and the sector’s future is looking much brighter than it did 18 months ago.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Friday, 03 August 2018 09:36

A Great Consumer Stock Pick

(Portland)

Retail and consumer stocks have been all over the map over the last couple of years. With digital disruption happening across the industry and consumer tastes changing, it is a hard space to figure out. However, an old stalwart looks like a good pick right now—Nike. The company has had its ups and downs over the last few years as it popularity ebbed, but it is back in a big way with a new distribution model of going direct-to-consumer. Morgan Stanley sums up the company this way, saying it is “positioned to take share in the high-growth, global activewear market as well as increase profitability, which should make it one of the highest growth consumer names and one of the few to benefit from the shift to e-commerce”.


FINSUM: We have been saying for over a year that Nike would prove to be a good bet. It had a couple years of competing poorly with Adidas and Under Armor, but it seems to be back with a bang.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Wednesday, 13 June 2018 09:32

Amazon-Proof Retail Strategies

(New York)

The whole retail world is centered on Amazon right now. Will ecommerce, led by Amazon, continue to disrupt traditional retailers? That is the nauseatingly frequent question being fretted over by investors. Well, here are a group of Amazon-proof strategies that investors can use to pick retail stocks. The core of the argument is that retailers need to focus on the areas that Amazon is not good at offering. In particular: “experience; customer service; partnerships with influencers; and personalization”. Private label brands are another area, as companies like Target have launched in-house brands that are exclusive to their stores.


FINSUM: We believe in three of the areas mentioned, but in-house brands and customer service are not good strategies to outcompete Amazon in our mind. In-house brands just aren’t compelling enough (especially nascent ones), and we feel Amazon has better customer service (at least online) than almost anyone.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
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