Displaying items by tag: fed

President Biden renominated Jerome Powell as Fed Chair on Monday this week in perhaps the purest bi-partisan reaction from the President since he entered office. The news was celebrated on wall street as both the bond and equity markets felt the reprieve. Additionally, Republicans on the senate banking committee rejoiced at the pick given Powell’s historical ties to the republican party. Powell was assumed to be in a close contest for the Fed position with Lael Brainard, but ultimately continuity was valued moving into the next phase of the post-covid recession. Still Powell’s road is difficult moving forward given sluggish employment and growth, and rising inflationary pressures.

FINSUM: This was a wise decision by Biden politically, and markets trust Powell to be dovish even as a republican which is the best of both worlds for the economy.

(Washington)

Fed Governor Lael Brainard issued comments on Thursday regarding the Fed’s position on climate change. Brainard said the Fed is developing a series of scenario tools to model the risk of climate change to the financial system. The models will see how our financial system holds up to hypothetical climate change hazards such as floods, droughts, and fires. This will bring the Fed closer to the rest of the leading central banks around the world, such as the ECB and Bank of England, who already are doing this at a minimum. Many progressive Democrats have been critical of the Powell Fed for their lack of green policy and financial regulation and this is a correction step that may allow Powell to get renominated in 2022.

FINSUM: These action steps are important by the Fed, but they will not be accompanied by any regulatory steps, meaning banks won’t be punished for over-exposure to climate risks. Thus, the risk to asset prices seems lower.

September saw the Vix creep to a 4-month high as the S&P 500 blew off 4.8% of its value. Most investors were hoping for a bounce-back month in October, chalking up September’s poor performance to a checkered history for the opening of autumn. However, they are likely to be remiss as volatility indexes are still climbing. The pullback in September was the largest since March of 2020, when the pandemic began.BofA said that while October is generally a well-performing month when it trails a struggling September, October can drag as well. Debt ceiling negotiations, oil price spikes, and Fed tapering are just a few of the onslaught of headlines which are giving the market fits.

FINSUM: While volatility has yet to hit the peaks of September it is already consistently above its 200-day moving average, which could be a sign of even more volatility to come.

Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last week on a panel hosted by the ECB, and relayed his frustration about the ongoing inflation pressures in the US economy. Powell said the economy’s most important concern is getting people vaccinated and containing Covid’s delta variant. Powell said the key inflationary pressures remain supply chain bottlenecks in the US economy. These supply constraints have the U.S.’s key inflationary measure (core personal consumption expenditure) elevated to its highest level in 30 years. The FOMC has raised their expectation for inflation from 3% to 3.7%, and Powell said this could continue into 2022. Powell’s Analysis was backed up by both Japan and the ECB’s respective leaders.

FINSUM: The supply shock to the economy remains as chip shortages still persist. As long as supply chains remain disrupted the unemployment/GDP and inflationary goals of the Fed will remain in conflict.

President Joe Biden is expected to nominate Professor Saule Omarova for the office of the Comptroller of the Currency, one of the leadership positions in banking oversight and regulation. Omarova is currently teaching at Cornell University Law School and is a critic of the role fintech is playing in the current financial system, all the way from cryptocurrency to robo-advising. Additionally, she believes regulation should be tightened across the board in banking, calling for a larger role in government supervision. She has also advocated for restructuring the Fed and having them provide consumer bank accounts. This is only the beginning of the journey as both fintech and the banking sector will lobby hard to make sure she doesn’t get confirmed for her position.

FINSUM: This would be a drastic leadership change in regulation compared to the relatively hands-off approach fintech has benefited from so far. The suggested changes to the Fed would pump shockwaves through the financial system.