Displaying items by tag: energy

Lower prices for crude oil and natural gas will lead to a more than 30% decline in earnings for the energy sector in Q4. In contrast, the S&P 500 is expected to see a 1.4% drop in earnings. However, these numbers are somewhat skewed by the 7 largest, mega cap tech stocks which have seen a 53.7% increase in earnings. Subtracting these stocks from the S&P 500 reveals earnings decline of 10.5% for the index.

Overall, energy will see the biggest decline in earnings among all sectors. The weakness was recently highlighted by top-line misses for Exxon Mobil and Chevron. The biggest losses are expected in Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing with a 63% contraction in earnings, followed by Integrated Oil & Gas at -34%, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production with a 20% drop. On the other side, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services and Oil & gas Storage & Transportation, both saw earnings growth.

Many producers are dealing with a bearish outlook for oil and gas prices due to weaker demand from Europe and China despite elevated geopolitical risks. At the same time, these producers are dealing with higher costs due to inflation, creating incentives to increase revenue by adding production. 

Finsum: As Q4 earnings season enters its later stages, it’s clear that the energy sector will see the biggest decline in earnings. Here are some of the major factors behind the drop. 

The last couple of years have been a wild ride for energy markets including developments like oil prices briefly going negative during the pandemic, Saudi Arabia releasing supply to discipline OPEC members, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, etc. While some volatility and uncertainty is assured given geopolitics, investors in the sector will be rewarded for having a long-term mindset and focus on fundamentals.

This includes being aware of the trends shaping the industry. In terms of oil, it’s clear that supply and demand is trumping geopolitical risk. This is evident as oil prices remain under $80 per barrel despite a large increase in MidEast tensions and the war between Russia and Ukraine continuing. More relevant to price is that production remains plentiful, especially from the US, while demand has been less strong than expected due to weakness from China and Europe. 

Another trend is that M&A should continue in the sector following a slew of deals at the end of last year. Large producers are eager to lock down high-quality properties. Valuations also remain attractive, while companies in the sector have large amounts of cash on the balance sheet following years of capital discipline. 

Finally, investments in renewables will continue despite recent struggles. The IEA is forecasting that 460 gigawatts of renewable energy production will be added. In the US, the EIA sees wind and solar production surpassing coal for the first time. 

Finsum: Oil prices have remained under $80 per barrel despite a slew of geopolitical risks due to robust supply and weaker than expected demand. 

A noteworthy development in 2024 has been soaring uranium prices. The radioactive metal was up more than 90% in 2023 and is now at its highest levels since 2007. According to Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, this move is being driven by increased demand from ETFs holding physical inventory and utilities who were not hedging due to years of low prices. 

Prices moved past $100 per pound last week following an announcement from Kazakhstan's state uranium company that it may fail to meet production goals due to construction delays and difficulty sourcing raw materials. This follows a slew of production downgrades from a variety of producers in 2023, adding to pressure on the supply side. 

On the demand side, analysts point to the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust and Yellow Cake as marginal sources of gold demand, contributing to the ‘squeeze’. As a result, many now expect uranium to exceed all-time highs from June 2007 of $136 per pound, and uranium miner equities have also been following the metal higher. 

Longer-term, many believe that the uranium market is at a deficit given the gap between yearly production and consumption. Currently, the gap has been made up by huge amounts of secondary supply, yet this inventory is also rapidly being depleted.  

Finsum: Uranium prices have continued momentum from last year. Many believe new, all-time highs are in store given increased demand from ETFs and utilities, while production is impaired.

Two of the largest domestic natural gas producers and leaders in shale production, Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy, have agreed to merge in a $7.4 billion deal. This continues a wave of M&A activity in the energy sector. For 2024, this is expected to continue given that many companies are flush with cash, while valuations are also attractive.

The merger is an all-stock transaction and is expected to close in the second quarter. According to Chesapeake CEO Nick Dell’Osso, the merger will enable them to compete on an international scale and lead to lower costs. The new, combined company will have a new name and a market cap of around $24 billion. It forecasts 15 years of inventory and expects a 20% increase in dividends due to “significant synergies” and an increase in free cash flow generation over the next 5 years. 

Last year, there were a handful of deals in the sector as ExxonMobil bought Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion, while Chevron bought Hess for $53 billion. Both companies were looking to boost production capacity. In 2024, analysts are forecasting that major energy producers will be looking to acquire high-quality shale holdings in public and private markets.

Finsum: Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy agreed to a $7.4 billion merger. Analysts are expecting more M&A activity in the sector in the coming year.

2024 has started off with a bearish tone for the energy sector amid concerns of a supply glut and weakening demand. On Monday, crude oil prices dropped 4% as Saudi Arabia reduced prices for Asian customers by $2 per barrel. 

This is leading to speculation that Saudi Arabia could be looking to regain market share by punishing US producers and undercut cheaper Iranian and Russian oil. It could lead to a similar situation as 2020 when oil prices collapsed as Saudi Arabia flooded the market to punish other producers. Currently, the US is producing 13.2 million barrels per day of oil and has been restocking inventories and increasing exports. Others see it more as the consequence of a weak demand environment and a reflection of a decelerating economy. 

Energy prices had been higher to start the year amid an increase in geopolitical tensions. These include Houthi rebels attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the escalations in the war between Israel and Hamas which could turn it into a larger, regional war. However, these concerns are being dwarfed by the supply and demand picture as evidenced by West Texas crude oil at $70 per barrel. 

Finsum: Oil prices dropped as Saudi Arabia announced that it would be reducing prices for Asian customers. Some believe that the country could be acting to protect market share.