Displaying items by tag: covid

Wednesday, 20 May 2020 10:55

Huge Trouble Looms in Munis

(New York)

Muni bonds are seeing yields way above average right now even as Treasury bonds linger near all-time lows. The reason why is that it is increasingly apparent that there has been a huge erosion in municipal credit quality alongside the lockdown. Costs have surged at the same time as revenues have plummeted, leading to a significantly deteriorated financial picture for municipal issuers. The has been exacerbated by the fact that municipalities have largely been unsupported by the Fed as opposed to corporate issuers. But the sell-off has created opportunity, as even AAA issuers are seeing big discounts and much higher than usual spreads to Treasuries.


FINSUM: This is all about careful credit selection, as there are big opportunities, but there may also be major pitfalls.

Published in Bonds: Munis
Friday, 15 May 2020 17:05

10 Great Stocks to Survive COVID

(New York)

The stock market is looking rough right now. The trend has been remarkably more bearish over the last couple of weeks than the 35-40% run higher we saw in the previous five weeks. With that in mind, here are some good stocks to ride out the storm: Morgan Stanley, United Rentals, Baxter International, Iqvia Holdings, Boeing, Whirlplool, Twitter, T-Mobile, Western Digital, and Peloton.


FINSUM: We want to take a moment to focus on Peloton, which has been an incredible business. Peloton’s growth since the lockdown has been enormous, and they have a low churn subscription business. Gyms are going to be unappealing for some time, so Peloton looks like a great buy.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Wednesday, 13 May 2020 12:29

JP Morgan Warns the Market Could Tumble

(New York)

The market has fallen a couple of sessions in a row and is looking weak today. It is sort of feeling like the decline many have been forecasting is finally grabbing hold as the reality of a long recession grips the psyche of investors. JP Morgan published an interesting report this week, saying that markets could fall significantly but that there are two divergent scenarios that could take place. In the bull case scenario, the re-opening of the economy works, with social distancing measures keeping a second wave from occurring (especially as summer arrives and holds COVID at bay). They describe the bearish scenario like this, saying “The other option is that overly complacent consumers bring down the guard too quickly, a second wave of infections hits, and the world is forced to rethink the optimistic timing of the new normal”.


FINSUM: The big question in our minds is whether a middle ground exists between these two scenarios. Maybe there are some isolated second waves with certain cities getting locked down. The market might just drift from here until the situation becomes more clear.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Wednesday, 13 May 2020 12:28

Why Grocery Stocks are a Good Bet

(Chicago)

The early thinking about grocery stocks was that the big surge in demand at the start of the COVID lockdown was just a flash in the pan. However, as earnings and guidance is emerging from companies in the space (like General Mills), it is becoming apparent that demand for groceries because of a heightened preference for home cooking seems likely to stick around for a while.


FINSUM: We agree with the fundamental thesis here. Until we cure COVID, people are going to stay worried about public spaces, including restaurants. The trick to picking stocks is to understand where each company is getting its revenue. For instance, General Mills does a lot of sales through grocery stores so its stock is rising, but Molson Coors does a large share of its sales through bars and restaurants, so its stock is falling.

Published in Eq: Dividends

(New York)

For many advisors, the idea of changing firms in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic might be the furthest thing from their minds. But the reality is that for many, this could be an ideal time to switch (or even a necessity) for a number of reasons. Firstly, many advisors feel under-supported by their firms during crises (of which this one is unprecedented), which may motivate them to switch associations. But additionally, because of the volatile to the market, recent valuations/production numbers might mean moving soon makes the most sense, as it will maximize the size of moving checks one can receive.


FINSUM: A lot of advisors seem to be worried about maintaining their employees and payroll given the big fall in fees.

Published in Wealth Management
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