Displaying items by tag: Goldman Sachs

(New York)

Goldman Sachs is in the middle of beefing up its wealth management business. It is adding advisors and trying to boost AUM. The division is very small compared to competitors, but its advisors have very high average revenue ($4.5m vs $1.1m at Morgan Stanley). Now, it is also boosting its securities-based lending offering. Through a program called GS Select, the firm aggregates other wealth managers and makes loans of between $75k to $25m to their clients, all backed by the securities held in the portfolio of the borrower. The program was just joined by LPL, which is now one of 40 firms participating in GS Select.

FINSUM: Aggregating other wealth managers to provide lending sounds very profitable. Evidently GS is also allowing much smaller managers onto the platform.

(New York)

Market volatility is back in a big way. This has made investors nervous and has re-ignited interest in traditional safe havens such as bonds and gold. However, Goldman Sachs has just note put out a note saying those asset classes have evaporated as safe havens. “No safe havens -- and no assets or equity sectors -- have had a positive beta to the VIX recently, and few have had a positive beta to 10-year yields, leading to diversification desperation”, say Goldman Sachs strategists. Rates, which look to be heading higher, have been a major culprit in the decline of safe havens, as have changing strategies, such as at the Bank of Japan.

FINSUM: This is one of the main reasons the market might end up falling further than it otherwise would have. Since there is no easy place to put cash, the overall panic level may be higher in a situation of serious volatility.

(New York)

All those worried that another bout of volatility is around the corner should definitely pay attention to Goldman’s latest announcement. The bank says stocks may drop 25% this year, but the call has one important caveat—Treasury yields would need to reach 4.5%. Goldman only thinks yields will rise to 3.25% by year-end, but a “stress test” scenario where they rise to 4.5% “would cause a 20 percent to 25 percent decline in equity price”, says Goldman’s research team. Some think stocks will rise until yields reach the 3.5 to 4% range.

FINSUM: Yields are not going to get anywhere close to that level unless the Fed goes crazy with hikes, which we highly doubt. There is a big pool of natural bond buyers in retirement age, and we think that will allow yields to rise only slowly.

(New York)

When you think of the big wealth management players in the country, even just the big wirehouses, Goldman Sachs is not a name that comes to mind. More associated with investment banking, the bank now plans to greatly expand its wealth management practice as it tries to bring in ultra high net worth individuals as customers. The bank plans to grow advisor headcount by 30% by 2020, with CEO Lloyd Blankfein commenting “The world seems to be growing rich people faster than we can grow advisers to cover them”. Goldman Sachs currently has 700 advisors.

FINSUM: So they only have 700 advisors, but the typical client has over $50m in assets. Goldman is certainly going after the high margin strategy here.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs put out a big warning to the market yesterday. The bank’s fixed income division says that it thinks yields on ten-year Treasuries are going to rise to 3.5% within two quarters as the Fed continues to hikes rates and the market sells off. Goldman called its prediction “not very brave”, indicating it thinks yields might be higher, especially since it feels the Fed will hike four times this year. Goldman’s forecast for rates is much higher than most analysts, so if it comes to pass, it could have big ramifications for equity investors.

FINSUM: If yields rose to 3.5% or above that quickly, we expect the equity markets would perform very poorly, and it may be the kind of scenario where we have a recession.