2024 has seen the stock market make 17 closing, all-time highs. Despite this strength, many are noting some reasons to be cautious about equities due to some concerning developments under the surface.
In essence, the strong performance of the indexes and mega-cap technology stocks is masking hidden weakness. This is reflected in the Dow Jones Transportation Average failing to confirm the new highs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is a ‘non-conformation’ according to Dow Theory. Dow Theory warns that a new high by the Industrials but not by transportation stocks is prone to failure. Similarly, riskier parts of the market like high-yield bonds and high-beta stocks are also underperforming Treasuries and low volatility stocks, respectively.
The leader of this bull market has been technology due to excitement around AI and strong earnings growth from leading tech companies. However, there are signs of exhaustion as the relative ratio of the S&P 500 tech sector has failed to confirm the breakout in the S&P 500. According to David Rosenberg, the founder and President of Rosenberg Research, “These were the most important stocks for the market, and no longer look to be in control.” He believes that the longer these measures fail to confirm the new highs in the S&P 500, the larger the risk of a reversal.
Finsum: 2024 has been a strong year for the stock market with the S&P 500 making new highs. Yet, there are some signs that the rally may be nearing exhaustion.
Category: Eq: Total Market
Keywords: #S&P 500; #bull market; #tech; #equities; #risk;