Displaying items by tag: earnings

(New York)

Morgan Stanley’s earnings this week were an absolute blow out for the Street. The bank beat all expectations and performed exceptionally well. For us, the earnings really feel like a salute to the whole wealth management industry, as it was Morgan Stanley’s pivot to focus more on that business that has made it the reliable earnings machine that it has become. Revenue from wealth management accounted for around 40% of the whole bank’s revenues, and was up 11% on the year.

FINSUM: Wealth management is a rock solid and capital light business, and MS’ earnings are a testament to that. Gorman’s choice to focus on this segment of their business a few years ago was a very smart one.

(New York)

Investors should take a look at big banks. Executives at top financial companies are excited about potential Q4 performance. Earnings estimates are moving higher based on more bullish guidance. Last year’s fourth quarter saw a dismal performance from big banks, so that sets up a very favorable comparison to this year. Morgan Stanley’s earnings may be up 41% according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

FINSUM: It will probably be well-telegraphed, but big bank stocks still seem like they might see movement higher now and a pop on earnings releases.

(New York)

The market just hit fresh highs and we are making progress on the trade war; everything is good right? Wrong, says UBS. The bank has just put out an unusually bold warning, saying markets are likely headed for a big decline. Why? Earnings. Earnings growth forecasts for 2020 have tumbled from a peak of 23% to the just 1% now, a huge fall in expectations. That all comes as the growth backdrop for the economy is weakening, and signals that valuation multiples are likely to contract. “Every bear market of the past 50 years has witnessed an actual decline in S&P 500 forward earnings … Ultimately, the most vulnerable macro backdrop for equities occurs when forward earnings growth turns negative as LEIs are trending downward (pushing [price-to-earnings] lower)” says UBS.

FINSUM: An earnings bear market can easily turn into a real bear market, though it doesn’t always happen.

(New York)

There are a lot of worries in the market that a recession may be headed the way of both the world generally, and the US more specifically. However, two analysts from well-respected Ned Davis Research have a different opinion. Of their 10 recession indicators which they watch, only one is signaling a recession. In particular, they dismiss five of the market’s biggest worries: the inversion, market breadth, deteriorating economic signals, earnings deceleration, and the trade war.

FINSUM: These guys seem overly optimistic. One of our big questions is whether some weakening signs in the economic actually point to a recession, or are they just part of a temporary ebb.

(New York)

What is the biggest risk to the equity market right now. Is it a recession? Is it a trade war? Neither, it is something much more mundane—earnings, at least according to John Hancock Investment Management. Analysts, and the market by extension, are expecting big earnings growth in 2020. And we mean big—the average analyst estimate for S&P 500 earnings growth is 10.5%. That seems like a huge number given that earnings growth in 2019 is set to be only 1%, and has been flat for a couple of quarters. It is made even more unrealistic by the direction of the economy. John Hancock says that defensive sectors like utilities, pipelines, and electricity grids should hold up best in the possibly forthcoming recession.

FINSUM: 10.5% earnings growth in 2020 sounds frankly laughable right now. That said, the market can adjust to these kind of expectations fairly fluidly, so a downturn in expectations may not wound equities all that much.