Displaying items by tag: ETFs

Timing is everything in the market, and investors have a lot of reasons to be cautious in the bond market. A confluence of factors is making it likely that bond yields might jump up in 2022, particularly on longer-duration government debt. This is concerning as bond yields and prices move in the opposite directions so jumping on long-term debt right now could be deadly. For instance, the latest treasury yield rise sent an equivalent of an 800-point Dow Jones plunge in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT). This is potentially scary as the markets are expecting three 25 basis points hikes from the Fed this year and inflation could also send bond yields rising. Most funds would see between a 1-3% hit on a 30-basis point yield spike.

Finsum: It’s critical to time the market but you might just stay away from long-term bonds, and stay on the shorter end of the duration.

The low rate environment has flipped the paradigm of many investors when it comes to the bond market, and most investors are leaning on higher-yield fixed income ETFs to augment their portfolios. Sure fixed-income ETFs are mainly used as a risk mitigator for most investors, but they also are the way to generate alpha. Investors can better manage the liquidity of Fixed income ETFs as opposed to individual bonds, so they pose fewer liquidity constraints when selling. With liquidity concerns off the table, investors can more freely move securities to look for an advantage of standard indices, hence alpha. On top of this, their broader exposure is a better source of risk mitigation as well.

FINSUM: Being able to flip a fixed income ETF faster than individual bonds is a leg up in decision making, and another reason to cast a wider net in the current fixed income market.

The latest data release from BlackRock’s iShares division revealed troubling news about the state of Bond Market ETFs: inflows slumped to just $14 billion which is the lowest since the onset of the pandemic. It's the taxable corporate bond market that's fairing the worst as investors are pouring less dollars into traditional corporate debt and junk bonds, amid fears of inflation eating yields. Instead, investors are turning to shorter duration and inflation protected bonds. Nearly 40% of fixed income flows went into inflation linked bonds, an almost unprecedented number. Investors have also started to put inflows into Chinese bonds as the international sovereign debt market was a relative winner among bond ETFs. China’s yield is the biggest draw to international investors as they see the debt as relatively secure and paying more than developed countries.

FINSUM: Expect corporate bond outflows to continue until the TIPS spread starts turning towards the Feds 2% inflation objective.

The environmental, social, and governance investment trend continues on a full head of steam as Goldman Sachs and BNY Mellon both launched a series of new ETFs aligning with different ESG objectives. Goldman launches a Large Cap equity ETF which tracks companies aligned with the new Paris Climate Agreement. Meanwhile BNY Mellon drops three new active ESG ETFs: the first will invest in over 80% sustainable U.S. equity, the second geared towards global markets, and the final will target emerging markets. These are just the latest as both Ark and JPMorgan created two new ESG ETFs as well in the last week. Some of the newer ETFs are following in the Euro area trend of specific disinvestment from companies reliant on C02.

FINSUM: The best part of all the new ESG focused products is the way they can be added that complement an existing portfolio: lacking large cap, pick up an ESG focused large cap ETF.

Direct and Custom Indexing is swallowing up the financial world interests like ETFs have over the last 20 years, but this new trend isn’t without its drawbacks, specifically for retirees. Most investors will utilize direct indexing to weed out stocks they don’t want or minimize their tax burden, Lawrence Tint formerly of BGI voiced some critiques of custom indexing. Tint believes the tax advantage over traditional indexing is minimal because of the turnover in the funds. Additionally direct indexing will have higher fees and even if brokers don’t charge for fees investors will incur the bid-ask spread costs. Finally, direct indexing will make it very hard for income investors to reinvest dividends in a way to mirror the existing or custom index, and the more custom the index the more likely the traditional problems of stock pickers will riddle the custom portfolio.

FINSUM: These drawbacks to direct indexing provide a more complete view of the pros and cons to the financial trend, but it still has a leg up in tax loss harvesting over traditional ETFs.