(New York)

There has been a lot of anger (and even legal action) about the big declines Lyft has seen since its IPO. The questions around publicly traded companies worth tens of billions of Dollars with annual losses of billions of Dollars are only growing more intense as Uber readies for its IPO. The big question is what investors should do about the stocks—stay away or buy in? TrimTabs Asset Management has some very salient thoughts on the issue. TrimTabs specializes in free cash flow oriented products and lent their expertise to this question. They conducted an in-depth study of how post-IPO companies with negative free cash flow, and negatively trending free cash flow, perform versus those with positive FCF. The results were stark, and in all instances showed major outperformance of FCF positive companies. For instance, over a 12-month horizon following IPO, $1 bn+ companies with positive FCF outperformed those with negative FCF by almost 16%, with the latter averaging losses of 6.41%.

FINSUM: This analysis from TrimTabs could not be more timely or insightful. We think it might be smart to stay away from Uber and Lyft until they at least have a clear path to profitability.