Displaying items by tag: trade war

(New York)

As if higher rates and Europe weren’t enough, there are plenty of other dangers currently weighing on the stock market. The two big ones are a potential trade war—sparked by Trump’s proposed tariffs on metals and beyond—which could lead to a bitter battle between the US and Europe or the US and China. The other big risk is FAANG, or big tech, regulation. Tech stocks have become such a stalwart of the market, that regulations reigning them in could prompt major losses.

FINSUM: The market does appear ripe for some regulation of tech stocks. GDPR just passed in Europe and the political climate seems ready for some regulation, but we believe it is still more likely that nothing happens.

(Washington)

You know that Mercedes or BMW you have sitting in your driveway? Kiss it goodbye, maybe. In a move that seems likely to cause as much consternation at home as abroad, President Trump is planning a broad ban on German luxury cars. Trump’s proposals have ranged from a 25% tariff on German cars (extremely heavy) to outright bans. He reportedly told French leader Emmanuel Macron that he would maintain his trade policy until “no Mercedes models rolled on Fifth Avenue in New York”.

FINSUM: BMW alone makes $8-9 bn in annual revenue from sales of cars in the US. If Trump wanted to start a bitter trade war, this would be a good first step. Americans aren’t going to like this one either.

(Detroit)

Just when it seemed like trade war ambitions were over for the White House, they are rearing their head again. President Trump has ordered the US Commerce Department to investigate whether the extensive use of foreign parts in the US auto industry is a threat to national security. The mandate he is using for doing so—Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, is the same as he used for his tariffs on aluminum and steel last year.

FINSUM: While we do understand the national security considerations, this could hurt both the car industry (because of increased costs) and spark retaliations from trading partners.

(Washington)

In what should give investors a huge sigh of relief, President Trump has called off a trade war with China. The White House has called off the aggressive approach in light of China’s statement that it would try to increase US agricultural imports there. Trump says it would be good for US farmers, who were threatened with becoming a casualty in a trade war. Democrats are criticizing the president for cutting a deal too easily.

FINSUM: We do think the US has gotten the raw end of many trade deals (not that it did not play a large part in undermining itself), but trying to throw its weight around with China was a risky strategy.

(Washington)

For all intents and purposes, the US government has just declared a trade war on China. Rightly or wrongly, President Trump’s list of demands for China to undertake on trade are so onerous that it is impossible they will acquiesce. The US seems to know this, but is drawing a line in the sand. Here is an example of the scope of the demands: “China is to reduce the US-China trade imbalance by $100bn in the 12 months beginning June 1 2018, and by another $100bn in the 12 months beginning June 1 2019”.

FINSUM: We have very mixed views about the new US protectionist approach. On the one hand we do feel the US has gotten the short straw on several trade deals, but on the other, we think this standoffishness could possibly damage the US economy (short-term), or worse, cause a geopolitical conflict.