Displaying items by tag: election
It has been a bad week for President Trump and his reelection chances appear to have taken a hit, argues Bloomberg. The reason is that the events of the last week have hurt him in three key areas: suburban voters, rural voters, and industrial states. The massacres of the last week, and Trump’s reluctance to push tougher gun laws, will likely harm him in critical suburban areas, where Democrats have been taking votes. Additionally, on the trade war front, both rural voters and industrial states are likely to be upset at recent developments, which could wound the President further.
FINSUM: We think polls still aren’t doing justice to Trump’s chances, but we have to agree that the last week has not done him any favors.
It may seem very far out right now, but the 2020 election is looking like it could be a very bad outcome for markets. Democrats are still leading in the polls, which is bad news because pretty much every candidate (perhaps with the exception of Biden) looks like they would be quite bearish for markets. Between higher taxes, more regulations, and government run healthcare, the outlook for markets from most of the leading candidates appears bleak.
FINSUM: When you take even a casual glance at how this election is shaping up, things look rough. You have the most leftist Democratic candidates in memory, and they are leading the polls. We think the polls are off and Trump still has better odds, but there is undoubtedly a very large risk.
Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016 was preceded by a nice run-up in markets, and the same thing seems to be happening right now. The market’s continued rise appears to point to an underlying confidence in the economy, and the more it goes up, the more out-of-touch Democrats’ negative attacks on the US economy and society may seem to voters. “The markets are starting to embrace the idea that Trump wins reelection. Most of the people in the markets don’t like him personally, but they like his policies”, said a veteran fund manager at AGF investments.
FINSUM: We have to agree with the assessment that a continued rise in the economy and markets would not be favorable to Democrats’ chances.
Will the US and China make a substantial trade deal? That is a trillion Dollar question for markets. Some argue that China may defer doing any deal and take the risk that Trump does not win the election, effectively letting the clock run out. However, an astute view is that China might be desperate to do deal while Trump is still in office. The reason why is that if Trump were to lose to a Democrat, who in all likelihood would be a more conventional US president that takes a much friendlier approach with international allies, then China would be in a very compromised position. A Democratic president would likely approach the Chinese trade deal with a much more united front of trade allies, which would be a worst case scenario for Beijing.
FINSUM: The irony of this is that Trump has been by far the hardest president on China in memory, but at the same time, the Chinese have the best chance at a good resolution by dealing with him.
It is getting to be the time of year when everyone is trying to predict next year’s election. A lot of polls show Trump is trailing, which has given Democrats hope and some comfort. However, a new chart published by Goldman Sachs offers a different view. The bank analyzed historical approval ratings against economic data heading into elections and found that when the economy is healthy, that factor outweighs approval rating. Goldman concluded that should the economy stay on decent footing, Trump has a clear path to victory.
FINSUM: This makes a lot of sense to us and we think it offers a more realistic picture than more minutely-focused opinion polls.