Displaying items by tag: economy

Tuesday, 18 September 2018 09:49

Goldman Sachs Says No Recession is Coming

(New York)

The whole market (and the media) seems to be worried about a looming recession. Driving that fear are many factors: a surging economy, very high market valuations, and a nearly inverted yield curve. Several big banks and research houses have put out warnings of a looming recession and bear market. However, one of the most prominent, Goldman Sachs, has just gone on the record doing the opposite. The bank says there is only a 36% chance of recession in the next three years, a figure below the historical average. “There has been increasing investor interest in the chance of a recession in the U.S. over the next few years … Our model paints a more benign picture”, said GS economist Jan Hatzius. The bank did note that if a US recession does occur, it will likely drag many developed economies down with it.


FINSUM: Recessions are famously hard to call, so we won’t go one way or the other. That said, there are some signs that a recession is looming. We certainly think the odds are higher than 36% for the next three years.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Wednesday, 12 September 2018 10:10

Why the Republicans May Get Smashed in the Midterms

(Washington)

It would be an understatement to say that a lot is riding on the midterms. Control of Congress is at stake, and within it, the whole policy agenda of the country. The stakes are even higher because of how politically divided the country is. Many think the Democrats will take the house but lose the Senate, resulting in a split Congress. This puts many investors at ease because it could block some of the right’s more extreme impulses (such as those against free trade). However, there is reason to worry that Republicans might fare far worse. That reason is that Donald Trump is the most unpopular president ever in such a buoyant economy. According to one polling expert, “There’s a huge disconnect … The economy doesn’t seem to be dominating in a way that it often does in elections”.


FINSUM: Our worry for the Republicans is that Trump is making the midterms more about himself than the party, and given the high degree of disapproval, that approach could really end up costing Republicans in the midterms. Consider an all-blue Congress come November a considerable tail risk.

Published in Politics
Wednesday, 22 August 2018 08:23

US Economy Crosses a Scary Threshold

(New York)

Citigroup says that the US just crossed a scary economic threshold. The bank’s well-known economic surprise index shows that the US is now at greater risk of negative economic surprises than is Europe, the first time that has occurred in some time. While the economy has been doing well, the trade war and a multitude of other factors, including the Fed, mean the US is more at risk of an economic downturn than Europe.


FINSUM: It is pretty easy to say that a country whose growth is at 4.1% is at risk of a downturn. It would not take much for the US to slow down considering its growth appears to be peaking.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Tuesday, 07 August 2018 14:19

5 Stocks for the Changing Economy

(New York)

Technology, trade wars, and social attitudes are changing the world and economy rapidly. How can investors adapt their strategies to keep up and “future proof” their portfolios? Well, Barron’s has run a piece doing just that. The stocks chosen include: Bridgestone, BNP Paribas, Lix, Dabur India, and Bharti Infratel. Bridgestone, a Japanese tire company, seems as though it would be hurt by tariffs and the rise of Uber. However, the opposite is the case, as most tires are made close to where they are sold (so no tariffs), and the rise of Uber and self-driving cars will actually increase the most important performance metric for tire companies: miles driven.


FINSUM: We wrote an article espousing tire makers a few months ago but we like the view even better now. No matter who, or what, is driving a car, rubber will still meet road, meaning tires will be in demand. Further, since parking for self-driving cars may be expensive, we can imagine fleet operators keep them driving around 24/7, increasing demand for rubber.

Published in Eq: Large Cap
Friday, 20 July 2018 10:02

Trump Criticizes Fed Hikes

(Washington)

In a highly unusual break from presidential tradition, President Trump weighed in yesterday on the Fed’s current policy approach, and he was not happy. Speaking in regard to recent rate hikes and plans to continue doing so, Trump said “I’m not thrilled … Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again ... I am not happy about it. But at the same time I’m letting them do what they feel is best.” Speaking plainly, Trump continued “I’m just saying the same thing that I would have said as a private citizen … So somebody would say, ‘Oh, maybe you shouldn’t say that as president. I couldn’t care less what they say, because my views haven’t changed. I don’t like all of this work that we’re putting into the economy and then I see rates going up”.


FINSUM: The media is trying to make a very big deal out of this, but in our view, these are pretty benign comments, especially coming from Trump.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Page 13 of 16

Contact Us

Newsletter

Subscribe

Subscribe to our daily newsletter

Top
We use cookies to improve our website. By continuing to use this website, you are giving consent to cookies being used. More details…