Displaying items by tag: S&P 500

Thursday, 23 September 2021 19:36

Morgan Stanley Says S&P 500 About to See Correction

(New York)

Some of the biggest names on Wall Street have been calling for a correction recently. Morgan Stanley is chief among them. The bank’s chief equity strategist, Mike Wilson, says he thinks there will be a 10% correction in the near term. According to Wilson—who predicted the last two market sell-offs—we are in a mid-cycle transition phase of a market cycle, which is an environment where equities getting very choppy.


FINSUM: This makes a lot of sense, but feels a little too bearish for us. If earnings can hold up, and inflation continues to moderate, we don’t think a full correction will occur. Flat and/or choppy, fair, but not a full 10% fall from here.

Published in Eq: Large Cap

(New York)

Bank of America put out a stern warning this week. A team of Bank of America equity strategists led by Ohsung Kwon says that the current market looks eerily like the one in the fourth quarter of 2018, when stocks fell 20%. The market is experiencing some concerns on near-term earnings as companies cut back forecasts. According to Kwon, “The nearest memory of early cycle companies' impact on the market is almost exactly three years ago when companies warned about tariffs and slowing macro conditions during 3Q18 earnings … Those warnings and a hawkish Fed resulted in a 20% decline in the S&P 500”.


FINSUM: 2018 came within a hair of a full bear market. That feels too bearish given the overall trajectory of growth. If Congress doesn’t get the debt ceiling raised, though, all bets are off.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Wednesday, 22 September 2021 17:38

How ESG Can Get Better Returns with Less Risk

(New York)

If the trend is your friend, then ESG is a bandwagon all investors should be getting on. Coming of a pandemic year where ESG funds outperformed conventional offerings, ESG has been red hot in 2021, gathering up mountains of assets. There appear to be two major reasons for this. The first is that more and more investors care to be socially-conscious in their portfolios, and secondly, because a long-held thesis that ESG funds would outperform is coming true. Over recent periods, ESG has had less volatility and more upside than traditional funds.


FINSUM: One can play with the time frame and other variables to produce the results they want, but logically speaking ESG is making more sense as the risks in the market are increasingly aligned with ESG: politics, natural (and other) disasters, social changes etc.

Published in Eq: Tech
Monday, 13 September 2021 19:59

Proof of ESG Outperformance

(New York)

ESG has been growing hand over fist, but it is still getting a lot of flak in the press. Two major reasons why. Firstly, many feel the sector’s performance is in question, largely because older investors believe there is an intrinsic misalignment between social & environmental goals, and returns. Secondly, many are starting to question whether ESG is really making an impact on society and the environment. Well, we cannot answer the second question, but number one has some new evidence. Morningstar recently ran an analysis of ESG funds, and found that: “25 out of 26 ESG equity index trackers beat funds that were conventionally weighted by market capitalisation, when it came to tracking the most common benchmarks last year”.


FINSUM: Proof of ESG outperformance depends highly on the timeframe being observed and the funds in question (which makes sense). For example, the last 18 months has been great for ESG because of some initial responses to the pandemic. Our view is that a lack of relationship to either out- or underperformance are both a good thing, since ESG is still accomplishing a social benefit and thus is a solid choice in the absence of any negatives to the investor.

Published in Eq: Tech
Thursday, 09 September 2021 19:23

Goldman Sachs Makes a Big Call on Stocks

(New York)

Markets are fretting over a variety of concerns: spreading delta variant, Chinese regulator crackdown, and Fed taper. However, Goldman Sachs says these risks are overblown, as delta variant will likely be less worrisome economically and their Fed forecast is dovish. They see a sharp turnaround for cyclical assets such as higher equities and higher bond yields in the short run. Near-term optimism will fuel US and Euro equities and most likely boost Japanese stocks as well. Going so far as to recommend shorting long-term euro bonds, and buying economically sensitive currencies like the Norwegian krone and South Korean won, which will appreciate relative to the dollar. This near-term cyclical rally won’t last long as they expect 2022 to deal from a different deck that won’t be as friendly to investors.


FINSUM: Weaker jobs growth will also delay the Fed’s taper, aiding in the cyclical rally.

Published in Eq: Total Market
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