Displaying items by tag: 2020

Tuesday, 04 February 2020 11:08

The Iowa Caucus Debacle

(Washington)

Whether you are a Democrat or a Republican, the ongoing “reporting issue” with the Iowa Caucus is highly embarrassing. Democrats were unable to report a winner after voting closed last night because of irregularities in reporting. The party’s new app, which voters and reporting areas used, did not fail. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies and reporting issues (e.g. phone lines were down). Candidates were unable to comment on their success or failure, save Pete Buttigieg, who declared victory.


FINSUM: Trump jumped all over this, as one would expect. It does not look good for Democratic competence to have a big screw-up on their first trip out of the gate in 2020.

Published in Politics
Monday, 03 February 2020 12:11

Iowa Might Blindside Markets

(Washington)

The Iowa caucus kicks off today and do not be surprised if market get blindsided by the results. Bernie Sanders holds a solid lead in Iowa and he is likely to win the day in the state. That said, markets have been dismissive of Bernie for a long time, and it seems quietly realistic that despite all the predictions of him winning, him actually doing so might spook investors.


FINSUM: We would not be surprised at all if we saw a mini “Bernie correction” when Iowa results come out.

Published in Politics
Friday, 31 January 2020 10:56

UBS Warns Sanders’ Rise is Bad News for Stocks

(Washington)

New polls are out and Sanders is at least tied with Biden. He has been reported as ahead recently, but a flurry of recent polls have all confirmed that he is at least tied. This could be a major issue for the stock market, as Wall Street is wary of Bernie. While they revile Warren, they understand her thinking and respect her regulatory acumen. Bernie is seen as a wildcard. It makes sense then that for each 10-point rise Sanders has seen in the polls, the S&P 500 has dropped 1% based on a rolling two-week relationship, according to UBS.


FINSUM: We would have to agree with this assessment. If Sanders wins the bid, the market will probably have a little blip, and then any polls that show Sanders ahead of Trump would be very worrying for markets.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Wednesday, 22 January 2020 13:40

Sanders Surges Ahead in National Poll

(Washington)

If you are hoping a middle of the road Democrat wins the party’s bid, then yesterday’s poll is an alarming one. In a new CNN poll, Bernie Sanders completed a 9-point swing to overtake Joe Biden by 3% in polls of Democratic voters. He rose a full 7 points to 27% support versus Biden’s fall of 2% to 24% overall. The first votes for the candidacy start on February 3rd in Iowa and February 11th in New Hampshire.


FINSUM: Purely looking at this from a political perspective, we think it is hard to say which candidate has the best odds of beating Trump. On the one hand, Biden can certainly capture more of the centrist voters, but on the other, Bernie is a much more realistic embodiment of the current Democrat party and could galvanize its identity to voters.

Published in Politics
Thursday, 09 January 2020 15:35

Be Prepared: Bernie Could Be the Next President

(Washington)

Conservatives and investors, consider yourselves notified: Bernie Sanders could very well be the next president. Bernie is jumping in the Democratic race and now looks like the frontrunner after what looked like a failing campaign just a few months ago. Bloomberg is draining votes from Biden, which is helping Bernie. He is looking very good in the first three big contests of the Democratic primary, and it looks more likely than not that he will win the bid. He had a huge fundraising round in Q4, leading the democratic field. What made his dominance in fundraising so impressive was not just the size relative to the crowded race, but the fact that his average donation was only $20, showing the scale and intensity of his support.


FINSUM: We still think Bernie would falter against Trump in the main race, but his odds for getting the bid are improving.

Published in Politics
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