Displaying items by tag: euro

(Rome)

The big recovery after the huge losses in Italy might finally be underway. While downward pressure on Italian assets had subsided, there is now a big rally happening. The catalyst is that the country’s finance minster has just pledged that Italy will stay in the Euro, helping ease the market’s largest worry about the political crisis in Rome. The minister also pledged to avoid financial instability.

FINSUM: Italy’s two-year bond has already seen its yield fall 100 bp! That is quite a response. To be honest we doubt this pledge amounts to much, but it is good signaling for the market.

(Rome)

Well it just happened. The two alternative Italian parties—the Five Star movement and the League have just formed a coalition government to govern Italy. The new PM of the country will be Conte, a very inexperienced politician who comes from a legal and academic background. According to the WSJ, “Matteo Salvini, the 45-year-old leader of the League who pledged to deport hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants, will become interior minister”.

FINSUM: There is now a strongly anti-Euro and anti-EU government in power in Italy. A default and a devolution to the old Lira are entirely within the realm of possibility.

(Madrid)

In what seems to be a spread of European unrest, Spain’s Parliament voted today to remove the country’s PM, Mariano Rajoy, who has been in power for seven years. While the reasons for his ouster are very different than in Italy, the move will add pressure to a European continent that is plagued by political unrest. Rajoy’s party was plagued by a corruption scandal, which seems to have ultimately undone the PM. He will be replaced by a PM from the Socialist party.

FINSUM: The worry we have here is that the socialist party may undo a lot of the budgetary gains that have been made during austerity—not totally dissimilar to Italy in effect. Then again, at least they are not Euro sceptics.

(Madrid)

While all eyes are on Italy and its political/markets crisis, the answer to the really scary question—will the Eurozone and EU fall apart—might lay in Spain. Italy is going to go down the road it chooses, but the big consternation is really about whether others will follow. To see the extent of the crisis, one needs to follow Spain, which will be holding a no confidence vote for its PM on Friday, with socialists likely to take over in his party’s absence.

FINSUM: If Italy falls, the next domino seems likely to be Spain. If the pair indicate they are leaving the Euro we will probably have a financial crisis unfold.

(New York)

If you are not worried about markets and the global economy at the moment you should be. At least according to legend George Soros. The hedge fund manager thinks that the world is headed for “another major financial crisis”, this time spear-headed by politics. Soros believes the epicenter of the crisis will be the EU. “The EU is in an existential crisis. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong”, said Soros, continuing that “it needs to reinvent itself”. Soros believes the problems in Europe have three facets: “the refugee crisis, territorial disintegration exemplified by Brexit and an austerity policy, prompted by the financial crisis”.

FINSUM: We sort of feel like we are in a time warp that loops back to the summers of 2011 and 2012. We do not believe the whole EU project, and the Euro will fall apart now.