Displaying items by tag: trade war

Wednesday, 07 August 2019 09:41

The Upside of Tariffs

(Washington)

While investors might not feel it right now, tariffs do have some upsides. The most direct one—revenue for the US Treasury. US Treasury income is surging because of the recent tariff hikes on Chinese goods. The rolling 12-month sum of customs duties collected by the Treasury (through the end of June) was $63 bn, almost double the sum of the same period last year. If Trump enacts another round of planned hikes on September 1st, the US will likely collect $100 bn in tariffs this year.


FINSUM: This is a good number, especially at a time of major government over-spending. However, it must be remembered that the large majority of this bounty will be eaten up by aid paid to US farmers as part of tariff relief efforts.

Published in Politics
Tuesday, 06 August 2019 12:20

The Biggest Drop Since 2018

(New York)

Markets took a nosedive yesterday. Last week was bad, but yesterday’s falls were so steep they amounted to about as much as all of last week. All fears over rates and the trade war came to a head when Trump labeled China a currency manipulator. The S&P 500 fell about 3%, meaning the total decline in the index since last week is around 6%. The Dow lost 760 points. The losses amounted to the worst single day drop since early 2018.


FINSUM: The “currency manipulator” claim is largely symbolic. While it certainly won’t help a deal get done, it is hard to see it having a tangible outcome. This seems like a lot of pent-up market anxiety manifesting itself.

Published in Eq: Total Market

(Washington)

Trump’s tariffs are having a major impact on the US’ trading relationships. The data has been showing such, but now there is a very significant data point: China is no longer the US’ largest trading partner. Mexico has now assumed that position. The decline in trade with China comes alongside an escalating trade war that has seen tariff hikes and restrictions on both sides.


FINSUM: We are now officially of the position that this trade war with China will not be resolved any time soon, so this decline in trading seems to be the end of an era.

Published in Eq: Dev ex-US
Wednesday, 31 July 2019 09:39

China is Coming Back to the Negotiating Table

(Beijing)

It has been a very bumpy run for US-China trade talks this year, but after a significant hiatus, China will again return to the negotiating table with the US in September. The most recent round of talks, in Shanghai, just concluded without an agreement, but there were some signs of life, as China buying US farm goods was discussed. The negotiators only stayed in Shanghai about 24 hours.


FINSUM: This seems to us like quite an intractable issue. We do not expect a forthcoming agreement any time soon.

Published in Politics
Thursday, 18 July 2019 09:06

The Trade Truce is Rapidly Evaporating

(Washington)

Markets breathed a big sigh of relief at the G20 a few weeks ago when Trump announced that after meeting with Xi, China had agreed to return to the negotiating table with the US. This sent expectations surging that a trade deal between Washington and Beijing was within reach. However, all that hope seems to have been for nothing, as Trump and China are reportedly having trouble even making it back to the table because of being at odds over Huawei.


FINSUM: To be honest, we think the US and China are so at odds over trade that it is hard to imagine they will be able to resolve these tensions any time soon. Some are even saying this is going to be the Cold War 2.0.

Published in Eq: Total Market
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