(New York)

Every investor seems to be panicking about the yield curve right now, and not without reason. An inverted yield curve has accurately predicted each of the last several recessions. And not only is the yield curve inverted, but yields are shockingly low—the 30-year Treasury yield just went sub-2% for the first time ever. However, that is not what you should be worried about, argues a top economist at the Economic Outlook Group. Instead, you should be watching consumers like a hawk, as they will be the deciding factor as to whether the US heads into a recession. “All eyes should therefore be laser focused on what households are thinking and doing in the coming months--- and not on some tampered yield curve”, says Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook group.

FINSUM: The yield curve is less manipulated than it once was, but we are far from a rate environment one could say was comparable to inversions past. We think this analysis is spot on.