(New York)

Barron’s has just interviewed a prominent economist—Stephanie Pomboy—and she has some very interesting opinions about the economy. Rather than seeing the economy’s recent growth as a good performance, she analyzes the data to show that this pickup in growth is actually the last gasp of American consumers before a big recession. Digging into corporate spending data, she shows how the US consumer has been stretched by everyday expenses even as discretionary spending is weak. Consumers have had to pay for extra everyday costs, such as on food and energy, from savings or credit. Now that the savings rate is starting to rise, Pomboy thinks we are headed for a recession.

FINSUM: This is an entirely different way to read the tape, but may not be that far off the truth.